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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 144-154.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0797

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

广西双季稻产量灾损风险区划及致灾气象因子分析

黄维1,2(), 潘荟晓1,2, 吴炫柯1(), 何燕3, 谭孟祥3, 刘永裕1   

  1. 1 柳州市气象局/柳州市农业气象试验站， 广西柳州 545003
    2 北部湾国家气候观象台开放实验室， 南宁 530022
    3 广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所， 南宁 530022
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-31 修回日期:2025-11-24 出版日期:2026-02-15 发布日期:2026-02-09
  • 通讯作者:
    吴炫柯，男，1979年出生，广西三江人，正高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象研究。通信地址：545003 广西柳州市柳北区沙塘镇公馆路10号 柳州市农业气象试验站，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    黄维，男，1991年出生，广西永福人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象研究。通信地址：545003 广西柳州市柳北区沙塘镇公馆路10号 柳州市农业气象试验站，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    广西气象局气象科研计划项目“基于DSSAT模型与无人机遥感耦合的水稻估产研究”(桂气科2025M12); “广西双季稻产量灾损风险区划及致灾气象因子研究”(桂气科2024QN17)

Analysis of Risk Zoning and Meteorological Factors of Double Cropping Rice Yield Disaster in Guangxi

HUANG Wei1,2(), PAN Huixiao1,2, WU Xuanke1(), HE Yan3, TAN Mengxiang3, LIU Yongyu1   

  1. 1 Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau/Liuzhou Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station, Liuzhou, Guangxi 545003
    2 Open Laboratory of Beibu Gulf National Climate Observatory, Nanning 530022
    3 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanning 530022
  • Received:2024-12-31 Revised:2025-11-24 Published:2026-02-15 Online:2026-02-09

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摘要：

本研究通过开展广西双季稻产量灾损风险区划，为水稻生产的防灾减灾和区域发展规划提供重要科学支撑。利用2005—2021年广西98个县区双季稻的统计产量数据，采用趋势产量分离方法得到相对气象产量，以平均减产率、减产率变异系数和不同减产率的风险概率作为评价因子，构建产量灾损风险指数，进行广西双季稻产量灾损风险区划。研究发现：（1）早稻：桂林南部县区、柳州融安和南部县区、百色田林、崇左宁明和凭祥等地多为中风险区，崇左龙州、桂林永福和荔浦处于高风险区，其余地区处于低风险区；（2）晚稻：河池南部、百色东部、崇左、南宁北部、钦州、北海、贵港东部、梧州、玉林和桂林恭城处于中风险区，崇左龙州、百色平果、南宁上林、钦州港南区和玉林北流处于高风险区，其余地区处于低风险区。在研究时段内，桂北地区早稻高、中产量灾损风险主要与春季低温阴雨和洪涝相关，桂西南早稻高、中产量灾损风险主要与高温热害和干旱相关，桂西部分地区晚稻高、中产量灾损风险主要与秋季阴雨寡照相关。受气候变暖影响，寒露风与晚稻产量灾损的相关性在研究时段内并不显著。针对双季稻产量灾损的中、高风险区，应重点关注主要致灾气象因子，并采取相应的灾害防御措施。研究结果可为广西双季稻的防灾减灾、农业保险开展以及相关科学研究提供科学参考。

关键词: 广西, 双季稻, 气象产量, 灾损, 风险区划, 农业气象灾害

Abstract:

By conducting the risk zoning of disaster damage of double-cropping rice yields in Guangxi, this research aims to provide significant scientific support for disaster prevention and reduction in rice production and regional development planning. Utilizing statistical yield data from 98 counties and districts in Guangxi from 2005 to 2021, the relative meteorological yield was obtained through a trend yield separation method. An index for yield disaster damage risk was constructed by using the average yield reduction rate, the coefficient of variation of yield reduction rate, and the probability of different yield reduction risks as evaluation factors. Based on this risk index, the risk zoning of disaster damage of double-cropping rice yields in Guangxi was carried out. (1) Most areas of early rice in the region were in low-risk zones, with southern counties of Guilin, Rong'an and southern counties of Liuzhou, Tianlin in Baise, and Ningming and Pingxiang in Chongzuo being in medium-risk zones, while Longzhou in Chongzuo, Yongfu and Lipu in Guilin were in high-risk zones; (2) most areas of late rice in the region were in low-risk zones, with the south of Hechi, the east of Baise, Chongzuo, the north of Nanning, Qinzhou, Beihai, the east of Guigang, Wuzhou, Yulin, and Gongcheng in Guilin being in medium-risk zones, while Longzhou in Chongzuo, Pingguo in Baise, Shanglin in Nanning, Gangnan District in Qinzhou, and Beiliu in Yulin were in high-risk zones. During the study period, the main meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks for early rice in the northern region of Guangxi were spring low temperatures, cold rain, and flood-related events. For early rice in the southwestern region of Guangxi, the primary meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks were high-temperature heat damage and drought. In some western areas of Guangxi, the main meteorological factors causing high and medium yield loss risks for late rice were autumn cold dew wind. Due to climate warming, the correlation between cold dew wind and late rice yield loss was not significant during the study period. In regions at medium to high risk of yield loss in double-cropping rice, the focus should be on identifying the main meteorological factors responsible for disasters and implementing corresponding disaster prevention measures. The research results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, the development of agricultural insurance, and relevant scientific research of double-cropping rice in Guangxi.

Key words: Guangxi, double-cropping rice, meteorological yield, disaster damage, risk regionalization, agricultural meteorological disasters