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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2009, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (16): 263-267.

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国农业EKC研究：以化肥为例

刘扬,陈劭锋,张云芳   

  • 收稿日期:2009-06-16 修回日期:2009-07-06 出版日期:2009-08-20 发布日期:2009-08-20

Study on Chinese Agricultural EKC: Evidence from Fertilizer

  • Received:2009-06-16 Revised:2009-07-06 Online:2009-08-20 Published:2009-08-20

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摘要： 【研究目的】针对我国农业经济发展与环境关系的演变问题，开展农业环境库兹尼茨曲线研究，验证农业经济增长与农用化肥使用量间的倒U型曲线关系。【方法】本文采用非线性回归的方法，对我国及31个省市1952到2007年间的化肥、人口、农业总产值数据进行实证分析；【结果】结果表明，除少数省市外，我国和大部分省市的化肥投入量无论在人均还是总量上都与人均农业总产值间存在着倒U型曲线关系，且均已出现拐点并跨越峰值，说明我国化肥的投入量已出现整体的下降趋势。而部分出现倒U的省市化肥投入量还将持续增长一段时间。【结论】总的来说，我国化肥投入为增产手段的趋势已基本得到了扭转，人们消费行为和农业生产方式的转变是主要因素。

关键词: 农药残留, 农药残留, 毒死蜱, 蔬菜

Abstract: 【OBJECTIVE】on account of evolution of the relationship between Chinese agricultural economic development and environment, this paper Carries out an EKC research to find evidence of an inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and fertilizer use. 【METHOD】By using nonlinear regression method, this paper analyzes fertilizer, population and agricultural output value (AOV) data from 1952 to 2007 year in China.【RESULTS】The result shows that, there is not only an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in China, but also total fertilizer use. Moreover, there is a turning point between per capita fertilizer use and per capita AOV in most provinces of China. That means, there is a downward tendency of Chinese fertilizer use in all. The fertilizer use in some provinces, however, will increase for period of time.【CONCLUSION】On the whole, The tendency towards growth of fertilizer use has, basically, been arrested. The basic reason is the change of people’s consuming behavior and agricultural mode of production.