Variation Characteristics of Climate Production Potential in Guangdong Province from 1988 to 2018

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0094

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the climatic data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 1988 to 2018, the authors used the Thornthwaite Memorial model to calculate the climate production potential and study the change mechanism and temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the climate production potential. The results showed that the climate production potential of Guangdong Province showed a decreasing trend from 1988 to 2018, and the climate tendency rate was 18.4 g/m² per decade. In terms of spatial variation characteristics: the climate production potential was distributed in a step-like pattern, decreased from the coast to the inland. The first EOF vector analysis showed that the change trend of climate production potential had the distribution characteristics of more or less climate production potential in the whole province at the same time. The second eigenvector exhibited a zonal dipole spatial distribution. There was a strong positive correlation between climate production potential and precipitation, but temperature had little influence. The warm-humid type increased climate production potential, but the cold-dry, cold-wet and warm-dry types reduced it. The climate production potential of Guangdong Province will show an increasing trend in the next 10 years.

Key words: climate production potential, Thornthwaite Memorial model, variation characteristics, Guangdong Province

ZHANG Tao, GU Mingmei, ZHANG Min, ZHAO Weiwen, ZOU Futong, WU Yongzhi. Variation Characteristics of Climate Production Potential in Guangdong Province from 1988 to 2018[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(4): 99-105.

Figures/Tables 9

References 20

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模态	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积方差贡献率/%	特征根误差范围
模态	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积方差贡献率/%	下限	上限
1	83748.01	49	49	57902.81	109593.20
2	21950.18	13	61	15176.21	28724.15
3	15926.11	9	71	11011.21	20841.02
4	11702.94	7	77	8091.33	15314.54
5	7212.81	4	82	4986.89	9438.73
6	6808.72	4	85	4707.50	8909.93

模态	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积方差贡献率/%	特征根误差范围
模态	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积方差贡献率/%	下限	上限
1	83748.01	49	49	57902.81	109593.20
2	21950.18	13	61	15176.21	28724.15
3	15926.11	9	71	11011.21	20841.02
4	11702.94	7	77	8091.33	15314.54
5	7212.81	4	82	4986.89	9438.73
6	6808.72	4	85	4707.50	8909.93

气温	降水量
气温	-10%	0%	+10%
-1℃	-4.8	-2.8	-0.9
0℃	-2.3	0	1.9
1℃	-0.1	2.4	4.5

气温	降水量
气温	-10%	0%	+10%
-1℃	-4.8	-2.8	-0.9
0℃	-2.3	0	1.9
1℃	-0.1	2.4	4.5