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中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 198-201.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2011-2388

所属专题: 马铃薯 农业气象

• 植物保护 农药 • 上一篇    下一篇

内蒙古中部马铃薯晚疫病气象预报方法的初探

陈素华 张晓磊 杨旺林   

  • 收稿日期:2011-08-16 修回日期:2011-12-23 出版日期:2012-04-25 发布日期:2012-04-25
  • 基金资助:

    森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术

Study on Prediction Method of Potato Late Blight in Central Inner Mongolia

  • Received:2011-08-16 Revised:2011-12-23 Online:2012-04-25 Published:2012-04-25

摘要:

随着气候变暖和内蒙古马铃薯区域化和规模化的发展,晚疫病危害已成为发展马铃薯产业的一大制约因素。通过分析内蒙古中部马铃薯生长季节主要气象要素与晚疫病发生流行的关系,研究了晚疫病孢子囊形成的气象适宜指数,建立了基于开花期中尺度气象要素数值产品的晚疫病病菌流行期定量预报模型。结果表明,影响晚疫病孢子囊形成的关键气象因子为6—7月上旬的极端最高气温、平均气温距平和降水距平百分率,影响该病流行的气象条件中,温度和降雨最为重要,利用预报模型的计算结果结合孢子囊形成期的气象适宜指数进行判别,即可做出马铃薯晚疫病流行程度的预报,准确率达到87.5%。

关键词: 茄子, 茄子, 花药培养, 植物学性状, DH系

Abstract:

Along with climatic warming and development of regionalization and scale of potato production in Inner Mongolia, potato late blight had become a significant factor that restricted the improvement of potato industry. According to analysis of the relationship between the main meteorological factors in potato growing season and the prevalence of potato late blight in central Inner Mongolia, the meteorological suitability index of the sporangium formation of the late blight was determined. Based on the numerical product of the meso-scale meteorological elements during potato blossom time, the quantitative prediction model during the late blight pathogen epidemic period was constructed. Extreme maximum temperature from June to the beginning of July, mean temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage were the crucial meteorological factors which had effect on the sporangium formation of the late blight. And the temperature and precipitation were the most important in meteorological conditions affecting the prevalence of the potato late blight. Apply to the forecasting result and the meteorological suitability index in the sporangium formation period, the prevalence degree of potato late blight could be forecasted. The forecasting precision could get 87.5%.