关键词: 预测, 预测

Abstract: In order to enhance the ability of defenses apple flowering frost damage accurately and improve the apple yield and quality effectively and promote Shaanxi apple industry development stably, sustainably and healthily, based on the principles of statistical analysis, the correlation between apple florescence and the temperature factors before apple florescence were analyzed about all apple producing areas in Shaanxi. The results show, the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are better than the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ days before apple florescence and actual florescence; the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are increasingly significant by they are closing to actual florescence; from 0℃ to 5℃, the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are showing increasing tendency; the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are better than the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence. Based on the above analysis results, established the Shaanxi apple’ flowering prediction models about different producing areas, and tested the models using back substitution and prediction. The test results indicate that average error is less than 3 days and the forecast results provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation during the apple florescence.