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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (29): 81-86.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0303

所属专题： 油料作物； 园艺

• 畜牧 动物医学 蚕 蜂 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于决策树方法的大豆进口依存度预警研究

朱婧,范亚东   

  1. 东北农业大学,东北农业大学
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-11 修回日期:2014-02-11 接受日期:2014-05-16 出版日期:2014-10-31 发布日期:2014-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 朱婧

The Search on the Early Warning System of Soybean Import Dependence Degree Based on Decision Tree

  • Received:2014-02-11 Revised:2014-02-11 Accepted:2014-05-16 Online:2014-10-31 Published:2014-10-31

摘要： 预警是排警的基础，传统的预警是建立在预测的基础上，针对大豆预警提出了一种新的方法-决策树预警。从中国大豆生产的实际出发，运用预警的相关理论，首先针对近18 年的中国大豆市场，建立了预警指标体系；然后利用决策树的方法从各警兆指标对警情指标的影响中提取了若干规则集，建立了中国大豆进口依存度预警体系，结果表明：2002年至今，中国大豆进口依存度一直处于重警的状态。

关键词: 稻田三熟制, 稻田三熟制, 油菜, 谷林套播

Abstract: Early warning is the foundation of remove- warning and the traditional warning is based on the forecast. This paper presented a new warning method: way-decision tree warning. In view of the reality of China soybean production, this paper used the relative theory of early warning. Firstly, it set up a oybean early warning index system by analysis of China soybean market in the past eighteen years. Secondly, it extracted some regularity sets according to the warning sign index’s effects on the warning alert index by decision tree. Lastly, it established the early warning system of soybean import ependence degree. The conclusion shows that China soybean import dependence degree has remained in a serious warning state since 2002.