气候变化对锡林郭勒盟典型草原天然牧草物候期的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1063

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 植物物候能直接反映气候变化的影响，已经成为全球变化研究的热点。利用1954—2012 年内蒙古锡林浩特国家气候观象台气象资料和1986—2012 年典型草原优势牧草克氏针茅(Stipa krylovii Roshev.)物候期观测资料，分析了气候变化对克氏针茅物候的影响。结果表明：近60 年来，锡林浩特典型草原地区平均气温呈极显著上升，降水量微弱减少，日照时数呈极显著增加(P＜0.01)，总的气候趋势呈“暖干”性。克氏针茅返青期呈极显著延迟趋势，其它物候期均呈逐年提前趋势，整个物候期呈逐年缩短的趋势。多元逐步回归分析表明，0℃至返青日的累计温度对返青期影响较大；5 月平均气温和牧草返青-抽穗期累计温度对抽穗期影响较大；4 月、6 月降水量对开花期的影响较大；6 月份降水量对成熟期的影响较大；9月份降水量对黄枯期的影响较大。

关键词: 风险区划, 风险区划

Abstract: Plant phenology can directly reflect the effects of climate change and has become the focus of global change research. The author compiled meteorological data from 1954 to 2012 and observational data of phenophases of Stipa krylovii during 1986—2012 from Xilinhot National Climate Observing Station. Relationships between phenophases and climate driving were examined using correlation analysis. The results showed that the climatic tendency of Xilinguole typical grassland is dry- warming; The annual average temperature significantly increased, the tendency of the annual precipitation lightly decreased, and hours of sunshine significantly increased in the past 60 years. The heading, flowering, maturity, and withering stage of Stipa krylovii were ahead of time year by year, and returning to green stage was delayed. The multi-stepwise regression results showed the accumulative temperature during the date with temperature above 0℃to the date of re- greening greatly influenced the returning to green stage; the average temperature of May and accumulative temperature from returning to green stage to heading stage significantly influenced the heading stage; precipitation of April and June significantly influenced the flowering stage; precipitation of June significantly influenced the maturity stage; precipitation of September significantly influenced the withering date.

师桂花. 气候变化对锡林郭勒盟典型草原天然牧草物候期的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(29): 197-204.

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