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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 110-117.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2021-0345

所属专题： 水稻； 农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖北中稻抽穗开花期高温热害风险分析及区划

叶佩1(), 刘可群2(), 申双和3, 刘凯文1,4, 刘志雄2, 邓艳君1   

  1. 1荆州农业气象试验站,湖北荆州 434000
    2武汉区域气候中心,武汉 430074
    3南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044
    4长江大学农学院,湖北荆州 434025
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-01 修回日期:2021-07-08 出版日期:2022-03-15 发布日期:2022-04-06
  • 通讯作者: 刘可群
  • 作者简介:叶佩,女,1994年出生,助理工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象与气候变化等方面的工作。通信地址：434000 湖北省荆州市荆州区九阳大道20号 荆州区气象局,E-mail： 18362099103@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目“稻虾综合种养气象保障关键技术”(2019YJ05);湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目“湖北省优质稻气候品质评价方法研究”(2019Y06)

Risk Analysis and Regionalization of Heat Damage During Heading and Flowering Stage of Mid-season Rice in Hubei Province

YE Pei1(), LIU Kequn2(), SHEN Shuanghe3, LIU Kaiwen1,4, LIU Zhixiong2, DENG Yanjun1   

  1. 1Jingzhou Agro-meteorology Experimental Station, Jingzhou, Hubei 434000
    2Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074
    3Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
    4School of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei 434025
  • Received:2021-04-01 Revised:2021-07-08 Online:2022-03-15 Published:2022-04-06
  • Contact: LIU Kequn

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摘要：

为探究湖北中稻抽穗开花期高温热害发生风险变化特征,基于湖北18个农业气象站中稻生育期观测资料和1960—2019年气象资料以及2016—2017年荆州大田高温控制试验资料,采用数理统计、相关分析等方法,从产量致灾角度探究中稻花期高温热害指标,分析中稻高温热害年际变化、空间分布特征并对其风险进行区划,结果表明：（1）≥35℃高温危害积温与关键产量构成因素（结实率）的（负）相关性较高温日数更好。（2）1960—2019年湖北中稻花期高温热害强度呈先降后升的年代变化,尤其自21世纪初以来,高温热害呈现频率增高、强度加大、范围更广的特点,在空间上以鄂东地区的强度、频率增幅最大,其次是江汉平原和鄂西南,鄂西北增幅较小。（3）高风险区为鄂西北部、长江三峡河谷以及鄂东一带,低风险区为鄂西南中高山及江汉平原大部地区,其余为中风险区,1990—2019年较1960—1989年高温热害风险明显增强。

关键词: 中稻, 抽穗开花期, 高温危害积温, 高温日数, 时空分布, 风险区划

Abstract:

To explore the risk variation of heat damage during heading and flowering stage of mid-season rice in Hubei Province, mathematical statistics and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of mid-season rice to heat damage indicators, the interannual variation and spatial distribution of mid-season rice heat damage and the risk regionalization from the perspective of yield components based on data of annual growth period of mid-season rice from 18 agrometeorological observation stations in Hubei, the meteorological data of the province from 1960 to 2019, and the data of field high temperature control experiment in Jingzhou from 2016 to 2017. The results showed that: (1) the negative correlation between ≥35℃ accumulated temperature of heat damage and key yield components (seed setting rate) was a better indicator than the high temperature days; (2) from 1960 to 2019, the intensity of heat damage during heading and flowering stage of mid-season rice in Hubei showed a chronological change of first decrease then increase, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, the heat damage had increased frequency, strengthened intensity, and wider range; spatially, the increase of intensity and frequency was the largest in eastern Hubei, followed by Jianghan Plain and southwest Hubei, and the increase was small in northwest Hubei; (3) the high-risk areas were northwest Hubei, the Three Gorges Valley of the Yangtze River, and east Hubei; the low-risk areas were the middle and high mountains in southwest Hubei and most of the Jianghan Plain; the rest were medium-risk areas. The heat damage risk from 1990 to 2019 was higher than that from 1960 to 1989, intensified significantly.

Key words: mid-season rice, heading and flowering period, accumulated temperature of heat damage, high temperature days, temporal and spatial distribution, risk regionalization

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