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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (26): 285-290.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15060126

所属专题： 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    

城镇化与农业现代化协调发展程度分析

朱殿霄,胡志全   

  1. (中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081）
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-25 修回日期:2015-07-17 接受日期:2015-07-22 出版日期:2015-09-23 发布日期:2015-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 胡志全
  • 基金资助:
    国家软科学研究计划“农业现代化与新型城镇化”(2014GXS1B002)；中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-02)。

Coordinated Development Degree Analysis of
Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization

Zhu Dianxiao, Hu Zhiquan   

  1. (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081)
  • Received:2015-06-25 Revised:2015-07-17 Accepted:2015-07-22 Online:2015-09-23 Published:2015-09-23

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摘要： 加快城镇化与农业现代化发展是中国新时期“四化”建设的重要目标，研究认识城镇化与农业现代化之间的关系，是实现二者均衡发展的前提。在建立综合评价指标分别对系统发展水平进行评价的基础上，使用耦合协调度模型进一步探究了过去20多年城镇化与农业现代发展的协调作用程度，研究结果表明：城镇化与农业现代化不是两个孤立的过程，两者之间存在要素互补、发展互动、目标互融的关系，在发展初期，城镇化对农业现代化有较强的拉动效应。1990—2013年间，中国的农业现代化与城镇化获得了较快的发展，两系统间的互动协调效应不断加强，2013年两系统间的耦和协调度为0.53，处于初级协调的水平，预计到2025年左右耦合协调度将超过0.7，达到中级协调的水平，城镇化与农业现代化发展进入螺旋上升的发展时期。

关键词: 夏玉米, 夏玉米, 适宜密度, 隆平206, 淮北

Abstract: To accelerate the development of urbanization and agricultural modernization is an important mission of the construction of ‘four modernizations’ in China, study the relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization is the premise to achieve the balanced development. On the basis of the establishment of comprehensive evaluation index to evaluate the development degree of urbanization and agricultural modernization, the author aimed to use the coupling harmonious degree model to further explore the coordination degree of those two systems in the past 20 years. The results showed that urbanization and agricultural modernization were not independent, they were elements complementary, development interaction and targets inter-amalgamation. Urbanization had a strong promoting effect on agricultural modernization in the initial stage. From 1990 to 2013, Chinese agricultural modernization and urbanization gained great development, and the interaction and synergetic effect was increasingly strong. The coupling harmonious degree of those two systems was 0.53 in 2013, which belonged to the level of primary coordination, and it was estimated that the coupling coordination degree could exceed 0.7 in 2025, which belonged to the level of intermediate coordination, the development of Chinese urbanization and agricultural modernization would enter a spiral up period.