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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 88-94.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15090093

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江终霜日变化对粮食生产影响的分析

郑红,魏磊,潘华盛,杨娃娃   

  1. 黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江省气象台
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-22 修回日期:2016-01-11 接受日期:2016-01-25 出版日期:2016-04-20 发布日期:2016-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 郑红
  • 基金资助:
    ：国家软科学研究计划项目“气候变化（暖）对国家主要商品基地建设安全的影响及适应对策的研究”(2012GXS4B071)；黑龙江省科技攻关项目“七星河湿地生态系统变化、原因及环境保护措施的研究”(GC09C106)。

Change Characteristics of Last Frost Date and the Impact on Grain Production in Heilongjiang

  • Received:2015-09-22 Revised:2016-01-11 Accepted:2016-01-25 Online:2016-04-20 Published:2016-04-20

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摘要： 为了达到提前做好粮食产量预估的目的，笔者利用实际监测1961—2011 年终霜日、平均气温、≥10℃积温、粮食单产等资料，采用统计相关和趋势计算方法，分析了近50 年终霜日年代际、年际变化特点。结果表明，20 世纪80 年代后伴随全球气候变暖，终霜日提前速率加快与同期年平均温度、5 月平均温度具有反位相相关变化特征，与5 月平均温度相关系数达-0.63。通过终霜日推后与提前对作物生长季≥10℃积温关系的分析，揭示它们之间也同样存在明显的反位相相关关系。同时分析了终霜日对粮食单产影响的关系，相关系数为-0.58；指出终霜日提前年份对粮食增产的概率可达0.65，其中在0.35减产年份中全部是由于严重的旱和涝象所造成；综上表明，黑龙江省在气候变暖的大背景下，终霜提前，生长季≥10℃积温增加，粮食增产的概率大大增加。

关键词: 黄土高原, 黄土高原, 苹果园, 生草栽培

Abstract: In order to forecast grain production in advance, the authors used the actual monitoring data of the last frost date, average temperature, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and unit area yield of grain from 1961 to 2011, adopted the statistical correlation and trend calculation methods to analyze the characteristics of decadal and interannual change of the last frost date. The results showed that: with global climate warming after the 1980s, the advance rate of the last frost date was accelerated, the correlations were in anti-phase between the last frost date and the annual average air temperature as well as the average air temperature in May, the correlation coefficient was - 0.63 between the last frost date and the average air temperature in May. The correlations between the earlier or later last frost date and the ≥10℃ accumulated air temperature in crop growing season were analyzed, the correlations were in anti-phase obviously. The correlation between the last frost date and the crop yield was also analyzed, the correlation coefficient was -0.58. 65% of years with earlier last frost date had grain production increase, and 35% years with decreased grain production were years with serious drought or flood. In conclusion, under the background of climate warming in Heilongjiang Province, the probability of grain production increase will be significant with earlier last frost date and the increase of ≥10℃ accumulated air temperature in crop growing season.