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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (23): 74-80.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20190500199

所属专题： 园艺

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GM(1,1)模型的不同措施下陕西省苹果园化肥消耗量预测分析

杨莉莉1(), 胡凡1, 李水利2, 李茹2, 石磊2, 同延安1()   

  1. 1西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,陕西杨凌 712100
    2陕西省土壤肥料工作站,西安 710004
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-27 修回日期:2019-10-23 出版日期:2020-08-15 发布日期:2020-08-13
  • 通讯作者: 同延安
  • 作者简介:杨莉莉,女,1988年出生,在读博士,研究方向：植物营养与调控。通信地址：712100 陕西省咸阳市杨凌区邰城路3号 西北农林科技大学南校区资源环境学院,E-mail： yalili2009@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    陕西省测土配方施肥项目

Apple Orchards in Shaanxi Under Measures Based on GM(1,1) Model: Prediction and Analysis of Fertilizer Consumption

Yang Lili1(), Hu Fan1, Li Shuili2, Li Ru2, Shi Lei2, Tong Yan’an1()   

  1. 1College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling Shaanxi 712100
    2Soil and Fertilizer Station of Shaanxi, Xi’an 710004
  • Received:2019-05-27 Revised:2019-10-23 Online:2020-08-15 Published:2020-08-13
  • Contact: Tong Yan’an

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摘要：

为了明确优化配置肥料资源和减少果园化肥消耗量的合理措施,本研究结合陕西省苹果园当前施肥情况及养分高效管理措施,利用GM(1,1)模型对陕西省苹果园化肥用量进行预测。结果表明：预计到2025年陕西省苹果使用化肥纯养分N、P2O5、K2O的消耗量将分别达87.28万t、55.29万t、38.64万t,增长量为目前的74.3%。2025年所有苹果园实现推荐施肥的情况下,化肥N、P2O5、K2O的节省总量将达36.21万t,节省的化肥总量占预测的当年苹果园肥料总消耗量的20%;水肥一体化实施面积比例占总种植面积的20%的情况下,则N、P2O5、K2O总量可节省18.12万t,节省的化肥总量占预测的当年苹果园肥料总消耗量的10%。因此,在果园积极推行推荐施肥或水肥一体化,化肥消耗量均能明显降低,利于中国果园的可持续发展。

关键词: GM(1,1)模型, 苹果园, 推荐施肥, 水肥一体化, 化肥消耗量, 化肥减量

Abstract:

The paper aims to identify reasonable measures to optimize the allocation of fertilizer resources and reduce the fertilizer consumption in orchards. We predicted the amount of fertilizer applied in apple orchards in Shaanxi based on GM(1,1) model combined with the current fertilization situation and nutrient efficient management measures. The results showed that: according to the model prediction, the consumption of pure nutrients N, P2O5 and K2O in apple orchards in Shaanxi would reach 872800, 552900 and 386400 t, respectively, in 2025, 74.3% more than the current amount; if the recommended fertilization could be carried out in all the orchards by 2025, the amount of fertilizer N, P2O5, K2O would be cut by 362100 t, accounting for 20% of the predicted consumption; when the fertigation area reached 20% of the total planted area in 2025, the amount of N, P2O5, K2O would be cut by 181200 t, accounting for 10% of the total predicted consumption. Therefore, the promotion of recommended fertilization or fertigation in orchards can significantly reduce fertilizer consumption, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of orchards in China.

Key words: GM(1,1) model, apple orchard, recommended fertilization, fertigation, fertilizer consumption, chemical fertilizer reduction

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