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中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (28): 133-136.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060117

所属专题: 水稻 农业气象

• 植物保护 农药 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江省东部地区影响稻瘟病流行的气象因素通径分析及短期预测模型的建立

顾 鑫   

  1. 黑龙江省农业科学院佳木斯分院
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-23 修回日期:2016-09-19 接受日期:2016-09-26 出版日期:2017-10-24 发布日期:2017-10-24
  • 通讯作者: 顾 鑫
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省杰出青年科学基金(JC2015005)。

Path Analysis of Meteorological Factors Affecting Rice Blast and Short-term Prediction Model Establishment in East Heilongjiang

  • Received:2016-06-23 Revised:2016-09-19 Accepted:2016-09-26 Online:2017-10-24 Published:2017-10-24

摘要: 针对稻瘟病严重影响黑龙江省东部地区水稻生产这一情况。试验于2006-2015年在黑龙江省东部地区9个地点进行定点、定期调查水稻稻瘟病的发生情况,并收集稻瘟病侵染期的气象因子,采用通径分析及逐步回归的方法对水稻稻瘟病的病情指数与气象因子之间的关系的进行了研究,明确了7月份、8月份的平均气温为影响稻瘟病发生流行的主要气象因子,并建立短期预测模型:Y=-85.171163 0.41315X1 1.23231X2-0.1817X4-0.09418X5 0.167333

关键词: 可循环资源, 可循环资源, 太阳辐射能源, 风资源, 雨水利用, 农村社区

Abstract: Rice blast severely affects rice production in east Heilongjiang. The fixed-point investigation and periodic investigation were carried out in 2004-2013, and meteorological factors were collected during the infection of rice blast, the relationship between meteorological factors and rice blast disease index were studied by path analysis and stepwise regression methods. The results showed that: the average temperature in July and August was the predominant influencing meteorological factor on rice blast occurrence, and a short- term predicting model was built as:Y =-85.171163+0.41315X 1 +1.23231X 2-0.1817X 4-0.09418X 5 +0.167333X 6 + 0.178722X 7 +0.03334X 8 +0.04305X 9. With the above equation, regression fitting was carried out for 2004- 2013, and the result was good. The equation can be applied to middle and short-term prediction of rice blast occurrence in east Heilongjiang.

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