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中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (15): 128-134.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17040137

所属专题: 玉米 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2015年寿阳县气候变化特征及对玉米生产的影响

杨红雁,杨星星,焦磊   

  1. 山西省晋中市气象局,山西省左权县气象局,山西省左权县气象局
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-21 修回日期:2018-04-22 接受日期:2017-09-25 出版日期:2018-05-29 发布日期:2018-05-29
  • 通讯作者: 杨红雁
  • 基金资助:
    晋中市气象局气象科学技术研究项目“晋中市特色农业智慧气象服务平台”(2016JZQXKT03)。

Variation Characteristics of Climate and Effect on Corn Production in Shouyang 1961-2015

  • Received:2017-04-21 Revised:2018-04-22 Accepted:2017-09-25 Online:2018-05-29 Published:2018-05-29

摘要: 为了进一步认识全球气候变暖背景下寿阳县气温、降水响应及变化情况,依据寿阳县1961-2015年气温、降水逐月实测资料,运用线性趋势、距平分析、5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和滑动t检验等方法,分析了寿阳县气温、降水量年际和季节变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:近55年来寿阳县年平均气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.15℃/10 a,并经历了“冷-暖-冷”3个时期;四季气温均呈上升趋势,冬季上升最快,其次是春季,秋季比春季略低,夏季最低;年平均气温、春季、秋季和冬季平均气温分别在1990年、1996年、1993年和1986年发生了暖突变,夏季平均气温在1975年和1993年出现了由高到低和由低到高的转变。年降水量呈减少趋势,气候倾向率为-9.85㎜/10a,存在着明显的“多-少-多”3个阶段变化;四季降水量均呈减少趋势,夏季减幅最大,秋季次之、春、冬季不明显;年和秋季降水量分别在1967年和1968年发生减少突变,春季降水量在1999年和冬季降水量在1979年各出现了由多到少的转变,夏降水量无突变以及跃变特征。气温升高、降水减少对寿阳玉米生产的影响利弊共存。

关键词: 中华金叶榆, 中华金叶榆, 几何造型, 培育技术

Abstract: The paper aims to study the variation of temperature and precipitation in Shouyang under the background of global climate warming, and to rationally utilize climate resources and guarantee food safety. Based on the data of annual temperature and monthly precipitation in Shouyang from 1961 to 2015, the authors analyzed the interannual and seasonal variability and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Shouyang by the methods of linear trend, anomaly analysis, 5- year sliding average method, the M- K mutation test and slidingt test. The results showed that: the annual average temperature in Shouyang in nearly 55 years showed an increasing trend with the rate of 0.15℃/10 a; the annual average precipitation had a decreasing trend with the rate of -9.85 mm/10 a, the mutation points of the temperature and precipitation were separately in 1990 and 1967; the seasonal average temperature had an increasing trend, and the seasonal precipitation had a descending trend; the temperature raised most in winter, and that in summer was not obvious; the precipitation descended most in summer, and that in spring was the minimum. The mutations of average temperature in spring, autumn and winter occurred in 1996, 1993 and 1986, respectively, and the precipitation in autumn occurred in 1968. The increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation had both advantages and disadvantages in corn production.

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