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中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (14): 118-122.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17080045

所属专题: 园艺 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

银杏最佳观赏期气象条件分析及预测

盛琼,陈中赟,顾泽,骆丽楠   

  1. 湖州市气象局,湖州市气象局,湖州市气象局,湖州市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-09 修回日期:2017-09-14 接受日期:2017-09-25 出版日期:2018-05-17 发布日期:2018-05-17
  • 通讯作者: 盛琼
  • 基金资助:
    湖州市科技计划项目“湖州市全域旅游智慧气象服务保障系统研究”(2016GY12)。

The Best Viewing Period of Ginkgo: Meteorological Condition Analysis and Prediction in Huzhou

  • Received:2017-08-09 Revised:2017-09-14 Accepted:2017-09-25 Online:2018-05-17 Published:2018-05-17

摘要: 为了更准确地预测银杏最佳观赏期并提供相关气象服务,笔者利用2000—2015年湖州银杏物候观测资料及相应气象资料,分析银杏叶秋季物候期特征、最佳观赏期与气象条件的关系,并建立预报模型。结果表明,最佳观赏期与各气温要素存在显著负相关,即气温越高,最佳观赏期越早;最佳观赏期前有一定的气温阀值条件;根据最佳观赏期前冷空气特点将其分为3种类型,即回暖型、降温型、波动型;利用SPSS软件建立最佳观赏期短期气候预测模型,并根据气象条件阀值及冷空气特点进行中期预报订正,通过对2015年的预报检验,效果较理想,可用于业务试用。

Abstract: The paper aims to forecast the best viewing period of ginkgo and provide related meteorological services. Based on the phenological observation data and meteorological data in Huzhou during 2000-2015, the authors analyzed the phenological characteristics of ginkgo leaves in autumn and the relationship between the best viewing period and meteorological conditions, and established the best viewing period forecasting model. The results showed that: there was a significant negative correlation between the best viewing period and temperature, that was to say, the higher the temperature, the earlier the best viewing period; there was a certain temperature threshold condition before the best viewing period; according to the characteristics of cold air, the best viewing period could be divided into 3 types: warmer, cooling and wave; a short-term climate prediction model was established by using SPSS software, and the medium-term forecast was revised according to the meteorological threshold and cold air characteristics. The results are satisfied through forecast test in 2015, and can be used for business trial application.

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