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中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (25): 115-122.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17110035

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海气候模式解释预报产品的开发及其检验

杨昭明,时兴合,马有绚,杨延华,张调风,王紫文   

  1. 青海省气候中心,青海省气候中心,青海省气候中心,青海省气候中心,青海省气候中心,青海省气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-10 修回日期:2018-08-15 接受日期:2018-07-17 出版日期:2018-09-07 发布日期:2018-09-07
  • 通讯作者: 马有绚
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程2015 年预报预测类建设项目和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201853)。

Climate Model Interpret and Forecast Products in Qinghai: Development and Verification

  • Received:2017-11-10 Revised:2018-08-15 Accepted:2018-07-17 Online:2018-09-07 Published:2018-09-07

摘要: 基于1982—2016 年的气候模式数值预测产品资料,整理分析生成未来45 天北半球500 hPa 高度场和本地气温、降水资料,应用降尺度方法和PP、MOS预报工具建立了预报模型及其业务系统平台。结果表明:业务系统平台构建必须考虑系统结构和功能的先进性、数据存储传输备份的经济性、系统管理的可维护性;此外,还要兼顾前瞻性、开放性、稳定性、安全性和拓展性。系统模块编制采用前端网页、后端程序、模型—视图—控制器的模式和通用的通信协议技术。适合青海高原气候模式解释应用的降尺度方法是车氏多项式、EOF经验正交函数分解和预报量的分区。2012—2016 年青海35 个样本的月降水量、51 个样本的月平均气温预报建模试验的平均评分分别为64%和75%,预报试验获得较高评分的关键是选择最好的因子构建方案和制作预报的回归预报方法。

Abstract: Based on the numerical climate prediction data of 1982-2016, we studied the 500 hPa geopotential height of the northern hemisphere and the surface air temperature and precipitation for the next 45 days in Qinghai plateau, and constructed the prediction model and its operation system platform by applying downscaling method and PP, MOS forecasting method. The results showed that: the system platform construction must take into consideration the advanced system structure and function, the efficiency of data transmission, the storage backup and recovery, and the maintainability of system management, as well as the foresight, openness, stability, security and expansion. System module was prepared by using front-end web pages, back-end programs, model-view-controller mode and common communication protocol technologies. The downscaling methods such as the Tchebycheff polynomial, empirical orthogonal function factorization and predictand division are applicable to the interpretation of the climate model in Qinghai plateau. The average test score of monthly precipitation for 35 samples and the temperature for 51 samples in Qinghai in 2012-2016 is 64% and 75%, respectively. The point to get a higher score in the forecasting is to select the best factors’ construction plan and set up the regression prediction model.

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