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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (27): 128-136.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18110089

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

高原东北部春季冷空气次数变化及其诊断分析

杨昭明, 时盛博, 段丽君, 张调风   

  1. 青海省气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-21 修回日期:2019-09-03 接受日期:2019-02-25 出版日期:2019-09-24 发布日期:2019-09-24
  • 通讯作者: 时盛博
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201611)、(CCSF201853);青海省科技计划项目(2019-ZJ-603);青海省气象局科技项目“青藏高原东北 部冬半年低温事件研究及预报方法探讨”及“东部农业区季节变化的特征研究”。

Variation of Cold Air Frequency in Spring and Its Diagnostic Analysis in the Northeast of Tibet Plateau

  • Received:2018-11-21 Revised:2019-09-03 Accepted:2019-02-25 Online:2019-09-24 Published:2019-09-24

摘要: 利用青藏高原东北部68个台站1961—2015年春季(3-5月)地面气温观测资料,统计整理了春季各月冷空气过程的强度指数I(含次数)序列,应用气候诊断方法分析了区域冷气次数的变化特征及其成因。结果表明:在变化的趋势上,1961—2015年青藏高原东北部春季冷空气过程次数的气候变化倾向率为-0.290次/10a,减少的趋势不显著;柴达木盆地区、南部区的减少趋势与青藏高原东北部一致,东部区的增多趋势与青藏高原东北部相反。在周期变化上,青藏高原东北部和3个分区,3、5、7、8年准周期出现的频次相对较高,25年等其它准周期出现的频次相对较低。1991—2015年(1961—1980年),500hPa层贝加尔湖地区春季高度值持续偏高(偏低)是导致青藏高原东北部春季冷空气过程次数持续偏少(偏多)的主要成因之一。春季乌拉尔山高压脊、巴尔喀什湖至贝加尔湖低压槽、里海至咸海高压脊持续偏强,容易引导北方南下的冷空气从偏西北路径和偏北路径影响中国,青藏高原东北部位于冷空气南下的通道上,冷空气过程次数容易偏多;相反,冷空气过程容易次数偏少。

Abstract: Using the observation data of ground temperature of 68 stations in the northeast of Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2015,statisticing the strength index I(including frequency)sequence of cold air process in spring months,the variation characteristics of regional cooling air frequency and its origins are analyzed by using climate diagnostic method. The results are as follows. On the trend of change,every 10 years,the trend rate of climate change about cold air process frequency in spring from 1961 to 2015 is -0.290,the decrease is not significant. The decreasing trend of Qaidam Basin and southern area as common with the northeast of the Plateau,the increasing trend of eastern area is indistinctive. In terms of periodic variation,the quasi-periodic of 3,5,7,8years are occuredShigh frequency relatively,25 years and other quasi-periodic are occured low frequency relatively. The height value continue on the high(low) side in spring at the 500hPa Baikal is one of the factors to lead cold air process frequency in the northeast of the Plateau continue to be less(more) from 1991 to 2015(from 1961 to 1980). In spring,the high-pressure ridge of Ural Mountain、Balkhash Lake、the low-pressure trough of Baikal、the high-pressure ridge from Caspian Lake to Aral Sea continue to be strong,it is easy to lead the cold air from the north to the south to influence China from the west、northwest and north roads. The northeast part of the Tibetan Plateau is located in the passageway of cold air southward,cold air process frequency more than the normal,on the contrary,cold air process frequency is less.

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