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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 117-121.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb20190700466

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Logistic回归方法的石榴裂果气象预测模型

胡园春1, 邰庆国2, 崔辰2, 李全景2, 崔云鹏1, 安广池3()   

  1. 1 枣庄市峄城区气象局,山东峄城 277300;
    2 山东枣庄市气象局,山东枣庄 277800;
    3 山东枣庄市农业技术推广中心,山东枣庄 277800
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-22 修回日期:2019-09-09 出版日期:2020-01-05 发布日期:2020-01-07
  • 通讯作者: 安广池
  • 作者简介:胡园春,女,1964年出生,山东庆云人,高级工程师,本科,主要从事农业气象服务工作。通信地址：277300 山东枣庄峄城区坛山路（文体中心） 峄城区气象局,Tel：0632-8356080,E-mail：qyyc64@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    十三五山东重大气象工程项目“山东现代农业气象服务保障工程”(鲁发改农经[2017]97号);山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目“面上课题”(2017sdqxm13)

Weather Forecasting Model of Pomegranate Fruit Cracking: Based on Logistic Regression Method

Hu Yuanchun1, Tai Qingguo2, Cui Chen2, Li Quanjing2, Cui Yunpeng1, An Guangchi3()   

  1. 1 Yicheng District Meteorological Bureau, Yicheng Shandong 277300;
    2 Zaozhuang Meteorological Bureau, Zaozhuang Shandong 277800;
    3 Zaozhuang Agricultural Technology Promotion Center, Zaozhuang Shandong 277800
  • Received:2019-07-22 Revised:2019-09-09 Online:2020-01-05 Published:2020-01-07
  • Contact: An Guangchi

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摘要：

为了找出影响石榴裂果的主要气象因子,提高特色气象服务产品的科学指导能力。本研究以枣庄万亩榴园为研究对象,统计分析了枣庄石榴主产区峄城国家一般气象站1981—2018年的气象资料,采用Logistic回归建立降水、温度及日照等气象因素与石榴裂果之间的相关预测模型。结果表明：除了8月下旬到9月总降水量与发生裂果的概率呈负相关外,其余几项因子均呈正相关。对裂果影响较大的因子依次为9月最长连续降水时段的降水量、9月最长连续降水日数、9月日照时数和9月最长连续无降水日数;其他几个因子相对影响较小。所建模型对于石榴在夏末初秋裂果发生概率的总体判断正确率为97.4%,预测效果比较理想。

关键词: 枣庄石榴, 裂果, 气象因子, Logistic回归, 预测模型, 模型评价

Abstract:

The paper aims to find out the main meteorological factors affecting pomegranate fruit cracking, and improve the quality of special meteorological service products. Taking the Zaozhuang pomegranate orchard as subject, we analyzed the meteorological data of Yicheng National General Meteorological Station located in the main pomegranate production area of Zaozhuang, and established the correlation prediction models between meteorological factors, such as precipitation, temperature and sunshine, and pomegranate fruit cracking by Logistic regression. The results showed that: apart from the negative correlation between the total precipitation in late August to September and the probability of fruit cracking, the other factors were positively correlated with the probability of fruit cracking; the factors which had greater effect on fruit cracking were in an order of the precipitation in the longest continuous precipitation period in September, the longest continuous precipitation days in September, the sunshine duration in September, and the longest continuous no precipitation days in September, while the other factors had relatively small effect. The prediction accuracy of pomegranate fruit cracking in late summer and early autumn by the established models is 97.4%, showing an ideal prediction effect.

Key words: Zaozhuang pomegranate, fruit cracking, meteorological factors, Logistic regression, prediction model, model evaluation

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