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中国农学通报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (14): 105-109.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0941

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

哈密绿洲杏花始花期变化特征及预报方法研究

杨艳玲1(), 潘存良1, 陈艳丽2, 石侃1, 白松竹1(), 司地克·买买提1   

  1. 1 哈密市气象局,新疆哈密 839000
    2 新疆铁门关市气象局,新疆铁门关 841007
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-07 修回日期:2023-01-23 出版日期:2023-05-09 发布日期:2023-05-09
  • 作者简介:

    杨艳玲,女,1978年出生,新疆哈密人,高级工程师,本科,主要从事气象为农服务与科研工作。通信地址:839000 新疆哈密市伊州区新民六路经九路东侧 哈密市气象局,Tel:0902-2361744,E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目“哈密市特色旅游气象服务研究”(KM202251); 哈密市气象局科研基金“哈密杏花花期预报方法研究”(HM202109)

Study on Variation Characteristics and Forecasting Methods of the Initial Flowering Period of Apricot Blossoms in Hami Oasis

YANG Yanling1(), PAN Cunliang1, CHEN Yanli2, SHI Kan1, BAI Songzhu1(), SIDIKE Maimaiti1   

  1. 1 Hami Meteorological Bureau, Hami, Xinjiang 839000
    2 Tiemenguan Meteorological Bureau, Tiemenguan, Xinjiang 841007
  • Received:2022-11-07 Revised:2023-01-23 Online:2023-05-09 Published:2023-05-09

摘要:

利用1991—2020年哈密国家基准气候站杏花物候观测资料和地面气象观测资料,对哈密绿洲杏花始花期变化趋势、气候成因及主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明:30 a来,哈密绿洲杏花始花期呈提前趋势,平均始花期为4月3—4日(闰年为4月2—3日);杏花始花期与1月平均最低气温、1月中旬和3月上旬平均最高气温均呈显著负相关关系;与3月及中下旬平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、平均地温均呈极显著负相关关系;与3月上旬日照时数呈显著负相关;与3月、3月中下旬相对湿度呈显著正相关;与1月下旬、3月降水量呈显著正相关;与日平均气温稳定通过≥5℃初日呈极显著正相关。利用逐步回归分析,建立了杏花始花期的预测模型,通过回代检验和预报检验,取得了较好的试验效果,可为杏花始花期预报提供参考。

关键词: 杏花, 始花期, 影响因子, 预测模型

Abstract:

Using the phenological observation of apricot blossoms and ground meteorological data from 1991 to 2020 at Hami National Reference Climatological Station, the variation trend, climatic causes and main influencing factors of the initial flowering period of the apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis were analyzed. The results showed that from 1991 to 2020, the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis had tended to occur early, while the average initial flowering period was April 3 to 4 (April 2 to 3 in leap years). The initial flowering period of apricot blossoms had a significantly negative correlation with the average minimum temperature in January, and the average maximum temperature in the middle of January and March. It had a significantly negative correlation with the average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature and average ground temperature in March and mid to late March. It had a significantly negative correlation with the average sunshine duration in early March. The initial flowering period had a significantly positive correlation with the relative humidity in March and mid to late March. It had a significantly positive correlation with precipitation in late January and March. It had a significantly positive correlation with the beginning date of daily average temperature ≥5℃. The prediction model of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms was established by stepwise regression analysis, and the good experimental results of the back-substitution test and prediction test showed that it could provide certain reference for the prediction of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms.

Key words: apricot blossoms, initial flowering period, influencing factors, prediction model