2010—2019年西藏中南部春油菜生育期变化特征

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0527

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了解气候变暖背景下高原春油菜生育期对气候变化的响应特征,本研究利用2010—2019年西藏泽当农业气象观测站春油菜生育期资料和1981—2019年逐日气象资料,采用线性回归方法分析了西藏中南部春油菜生育期变化特征。结果表明：（1）1981—2019年春油菜生长季日照时数和平均风速呈显著减少趋势,减幅分别为-22.37 h/10 a、-0.32 (m/s)/10 a,其他气象要素均为不同程度的增加趋势,暖湿化气候特征明显。但2010—2019年春油菜营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期的热量资源（平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和≥0℃积温）和光照资源（日照时数）趋于减少,水分资源（降水量、相对湿度）和平均风速呈增加趋势。（2）2010—2019年春油菜现蕾、抽薹、开花和绿熟4个生育期无明显变化,播种期和出苗期为推迟趋势,而五真叶期与成熟期呈提早趋势。营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期的天数均呈缩短趋势,以全生育期天数缩短最为显著(-2.23 d/a)。（3）春油菜大部分生育期天数与日照时数、≥0℃积温有显著的正相关,与其他气象要素的相关性不显著。全生育期天数不仅与日照时数、≥0℃积温存在显著的正相关,还与平均相对湿度有着显著的负相关。2010—2019年春油菜全生育期天数随着日照时数和≥0℃积温的减少、平均相对湿度的增加呈缩短趋势。

关键词: 春油菜, 生育期, 气象要素, 变化特征, 影响因子, 西藏中南部

Abstract:

To study the response characteristics of the growth period of highland spring rape to climate change under global warming, we used linear regression method to analyze the change of spring rape growth period in central and southern Tibet based on the rape development stage data in the Zedang agro-meteorological observation station of 2010-2019 and the corresponding daily meteorological data of 1981-2019. The results showed that: (1) both sunshine duration and mean wind speed exhibited a decreasing trend during 1981-2019, with the rate of -22.37 h/10 a and -0.32 (m/s)/10 a, respectively, the other meteorological factors presented an increasing trend simultaneously, with an obvious characteristic of warm and wet climate; however, both heat (T_m, T_max, T_min and ∑T₀) and sunshine hours (S) during vegetative growth period (VGP), reproductive growth period (RGP) and whole growth period (WGP) exhibited a deceasing trend from 1981 to 2019, and water resources (precipitation and relative humidity) and mean wind speed increased; (2) the main growth stages, including squaring, peduncle, flowering and green ripening stage, did not have significant change during 2010-2019, but the sowing and emergence stage were delayed, while the five-leave and mature stage exhibited earlier trend; all growth periods of VGP, RGP and WGP were shortened, which was particularly significant for the WGP with a rate of -2.23 days per year; (3) most of the spring rape growth periods had a significantly positive correlation with S &∑T₀, but no significant correlation could be identified between the spring rape growth periods and the other meteorological factors, the WGP days had a significantly positive correlation with S and ∑T₀, but negative correlation with RH. With the increasing RH and decreasing S & ∑T₀, the WGP days of spring rape exhibits a decreasing trend during 2010-2019.

Key words: spring rape, growth period, meteorological elements, change characteristics, impact factor, central and southern Tibet

中图分类号:

S162

杜军, 高佳佳, 厉爱丽, 次旺顿珠, 次旺. 2010—2019年西藏中南部春油菜生育期变化特征[J]. 中国农学通报, 2021, 37(20): 77-84.

Du Jun, Gao Jiajia, Li Aili, Tsewang Thondup, Tse Wang. Change Characteristics of Growth Period of Spring Rape in Central and Southern Tibet During 2010-2019[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2021, 37(20): 77-84.

图/表 7

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气象要素	SO-EM	EM-FI	FI-SQ	SQ-PE	PE-FL	FL-GR	GR-MA	VGP	RGP	WGP
T_m/(℃/a)	0.03	-0.08	-0.23	-0.25^**	-0.42^**	-0.10	-0.20^**	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11
T_max/(℃/a)	0.07	-0.01	-0.14	-0.35^**	-0.43^**	-0.10	-0.20	-0.18	-0.07	-0.07
T_min/(℃/a)	-0.10	-0.10	-0.35	-0.10	-0.33	-0.22^*	-0.23^**	-0.21	-0.20^**	-0.16
RH/(%/a)	0.26	1.25	1.05	1.58	2.29^**	0.82	1.10	1.64^*	0.65	1.16^*
Ws/[(m/s)/a]	-0.03	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.02
Pr/(mm/a)	0.92	-0.38	1.65	1.32^*	2.04	5.63	-1.14	2.59	4.49	8.26
S/(h/a)	-2.97	-22.74^**	4.85	1.95	-5.57^**	3.16	-9.64	-13.91	-6.48	-34.59^**
∑T₀/[(℃·d)/a]	-2.17	-28.44^**	5.65	6.38	-8.36	12.25	-23.81^*	-21.98	-11.56	-47.19^*
DTR/(℃/a)	0.17	0.09	0.20^**	-0.24	-0.10	0.12	0.04	0.03	0.13	0.09

气象要素	SO-EM	EM-FI	FI-SQ	SQ-PE	PE-FL	FL-GR	GR-MA	VGP	RGP	WGP
T_m/(℃/a)	0.03	-0.08	-0.23	-0.25^**	-0.42^**	-0.10	-0.20^**	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11
T_max/(℃/a)	0.07	-0.01	-0.14	-0.35^**	-0.43^**	-0.10	-0.20	-0.18	-0.07	-0.07
T_min/(℃/a)	-0.10	-0.10	-0.35	-0.10	-0.33	-0.22^*	-0.23^**	-0.21	-0.20^**	-0.16
RH/(%/a)	0.26	1.25	1.05	1.58	2.29^**	0.82	1.10	1.64^*	0.65	1.16^*
Ws/[(m/s)/a]	-0.03	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.02
Pr/(mm/a)	0.92	-0.38	1.65	1.32^*	2.04	5.63	-1.14	2.59	4.49	8.26
S/(h/a)	-2.97	-22.74^**	4.85	1.95	-5.57^**	3.16	-9.64	-13.91	-6.48	-34.59^**
∑T₀/[(℃·d)/a]	-2.17	-28.44^**	5.65	6.38	-8.36	12.25	-23.81^*	-21.98	-11.56	-47.19^*
DTR/(℃/a)	0.17	0.09	0.20^**	-0.24	-0.10	0.12	0.04	0.03	0.13	0.09

生育期	SO	EM	FI	SQ	PE	FL	GR	MA
LTV/(d/a)	1.50	1.19	-1.04	-0.22	-0.07	-0.35	0.37	-0.84
R值	0.461	0.506	-0.463	-0.087	-0.031	-0.130	0.196	-0.318

生育期	SO	EM	FI	SQ	PE	FL	GR	MA
LTV/(d/a)	1.50	1.19	-1.04	-0.22	-0.07	-0.35	0.37	-0.84
R值	0.461	0.506	-0.463	-0.087	-0.031	-0.130	0.196	-0.318

生育期天数	SO-EM	EM-FI	FI-SQ	SQ-PE	PE-FL	FL-GR	GR-MA	VGP	RGP	WGP
平均值/d	8.8	21.8	18.9	7.7	8.8	26.5	21.2	48.4	47.7	113.7
最长值/d	22	44	29	13	12	38	37	65	64	139
最短值/d	5	13	12	5	4	17	14	41	38	102
趋势值/(d/a)	-0.32	-2.23^**	0.82	0.15	-0.28	0.72	-1.21	-1.26	-0.49	-2.35^*