上海市青浦区1968—2018年蓝莓主要生育期气候变化特征

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2021-0409

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用青浦国家气象站1968—2018年气象资料,选取标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对青浦区蓝莓花期、果期和成熟期不同等级旱涝发生频率和变化特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）青浦区多年平均气温为16.2℃,气温上升明显,降水量存在明显的波动变化。蓝莓不同生育期气温均呈上升趋势,降水量仅在果期有减少趋势,其余生育期均增加。（2）青浦区旱涝的年际变化明显。20世纪80年代、90年代和21世纪10年代总体较为湿润,20世纪70年代和21世纪00年代相对偏旱。不同季节的旱涝变化也呈现出阶段性特点,20世纪70年代各季有一定的干湿交替状态;20世纪80年代,春冬仍呈干湿交替,夏秋总体较为湿润;20世纪90年代至21世纪00年代,春夏秋由湿润化向干旱化转变,冬季则由干旱化向湿润化发展;20世纪10年代,夏秋冬三季呈湿润化趋势,春季多干湿交替。（3）蓝莓3个主要生育期花期、果期和成熟期发生的干旱频率分别为27.5%、25.5%和21.6%,湿润频率分别为29.4%、27.5%和27.5%。研究认为,青浦区蓝莓花期和果期有干旱化发展趋势,成熟期则向湿润化发展,整体上湿润发生频率多于干旱发生频率。

关键词: 蓝莓, 生育期, 旱涝, SPEI指数, 生产, 青浦区

Abstract:

By using the meteorological data of Qingpu national meteorological station from 1968 to 2018, we selected the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to analyze the evolution characteristics and the frequency of drought and flood in flowering stage, fruiting stage and maturity stage of blueberry in Qingpu. The results showed that: (1) the average temperature was 16.2℃ and increased significantly, the precipitation had obvious fluctuation, the temperature in different growth stages of blueberry had an upward trend, the precipitation showed an increasing trend in flowering and maturation stage, and a decreasing trend in fruiting stage; (2) an obvious interannual variation of drought and flood was observed in Qingpu, in the 1980s, 1990s and 2010s, the climate was wet, however, the climate in the 1970s and 2000s was relative dry; meanwhile, the evolution characteristics of drought and flood were different during different seasons, the alternation of drought and humidity was observed in the 1970s; in the 1980s, alternation of drought and humidity was found in spring and winter, while summer and autumn were generally humid; from 1990s to 2000s, the change from humidity to drought was observed in spring, summer and autumn, while the change from drought to humidity was found in winter; in the 2010s, summer, autumn and winter were wet, while spring had the alternation of drought and humidity; (3) the frequency of drought was 27.5%, 25.5% and 21.6% in flowering stage, fruiting stage and maturity stage of blueberry, and the frequency of humidity was 29.4%, 27.5% and 27.5%, respectively. The study suggests that in Qingpu, there is a tendency towards drought in flowering stage and fruiting stage of blueberry, while a tendency towards humidity in maturity stage, the frequency of humidity is more than that of drought on the whole.

Key words: blueberry, growth stage, drought and flood, SPEI index, production, Qingpu

中图分类号:

S162

郑泽华, 余延略, 马忠芬, 朱怀卫. 上海市青浦区1968—2018年蓝莓主要生育期气候变化特征[J]. 中国农学通报, 2022, 38(10): 97-105.

ZHENG Zehua, YU Yanlue, MA Zhongfen, ZHU Huaiwei. The Characteristics of Climate Change in Main Growing Stages of Blueberry from 1968 to 2018 in Qingpu, Shanghai[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2022, 38(10): 97-105.

图/表 6

参考文献 41

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序号	旱涝等级	SPEI指数
1	极端湿润	2.0<SPEI
2	重度湿润	1.5<SPEI≤2.0
3	中度湿润	1.0<SPEI≤1.5
4	轻度湿润	0.5<SPEI≤1.0
5	正常	-0.5≤SPEI≤0.5
6	轻度干旱	-1.0≤SPEI<-0.5
7	中度干旱	-1.5≤SPEI<-1.0
8	重度干旱	-2.0≤SPEI<-1.5
9	极端干旱	SPEI<-2.0

序号	旱涝等级	SPEI指数
1	极端湿润	2.0<SPEI
2	重度湿润	1.5<SPEI≤2.0
3	中度湿润	1.0<SPEI≤1.5
4	轻度湿润	0.5<SPEI≤1.0
5	正常	-0.5≤SPEI≤0.5
6	轻度干旱	-1.0≤SPEI<-0.5
7	中度干旱	-1.5≤SPEI<-1.0
8	重度干旱	-2.0≤SPEI<-1.5
9	极端干旱	SPEI<-2.0

旱涝等级	花期				果期				成熟期				花期至成熟期
旱涝等级	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4
极端湿润	—	—	—	—	6.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
重度湿润	—	—	—	—	—	7.7	6.3	—	—	—	6.3	14.3	6.7	—	12.5	14.3
中度湿润	20	23.1	—	—	—	15.4	—	—	6.7	15.4	—	—	6.7	30.8	—	—
轻度湿润	13.3	15.4	25	14.3	26.7	15.4	6.3	28.6	13.3	7.7	25	28.6	6.7	30.8	—	14.3
湿润	33.3	38.5	25	14.3	33.3	38.5	12.5	28.6	20	23.1	31.3	42.9	20	61.5	12.5	28.6
干旱	13.3	—	62.5	28.6	13.3	7.7	43.8	42.9	40	7.7	25	—	20	—	50	14.3
轻度干旱	—	—	25	14.3	6.7	7.7	18.8	42.9	13.3	7.7	6.3	—	13.3	—	18.8	14.3
中度干旱	13.3	—	18.8	14.3	6.7	—	12.5	—	20	—	18.8	—	6.7	—	6.3	—
重度干旱	—	—	12.5	—	—	—	12.5	—	6.7	—	—	—	—	—	25	—
极端干旱	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

旱涝等级	花期				果期				成熟期				花期至成熟期
旱涝等级	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4	P1	P2	P3	P4
极端湿润	—	—	—	—	6.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
重度湿润	—	—	—	—	—	7.7	6.3	—	—	—	6.3	14.3	6.7	—	12.5	14.3
中度湿润	20	23.1	—	—	—	15.4	—	—	6.7	15.4	—	—	6.7	30.8	—	—
轻度湿润	13.3	15.4	25	14.3	26.7	15.4	6.3	28.6	13.3	7.7	25	28.6	6.7	30.8	—	14.3
湿润	33.3	38.5	25	14.3	33.3	38.5	12.5	28.6	20	23.1	31.3	42.9	20	61.5	12.5	28.6
干旱	13.3	—	62.5	28.6	13.3	7.7	43.8	42.9	40	7.7	25	—	20	—	50	14.3
轻度干旱	—	—	25	14.3	6.7	7.7	18.8	42.9	13.3	7.7	6.3	—	13.3	—	18.8	14.3
中度干旱	13.3	—	18.8	14.3	6.7	—	12.5	—	20	—	18.8	—	6.7	—	6.3	—
重度干旱	—	—	12.5	—	—	—	12.5	—	6.7	—	—	—	—	—	25	—
极端干旱	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—