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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (19): 119-125.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0660

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆克州无花果种植对气候变化的响应

王金辉1(), 孙悦1, 黄龙飞2(), 王东1, 钱玉1, 张娟娟1   

  1. 1 克州气象局，新疆阿图什 845350
    2 景德镇气象局，江西景德镇 333000
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-14 修回日期:2025-04-15 出版日期:2025-07-05 发布日期:2025-07-10
  • 通讯作者:
    黄龙飞，男，1988年出生，江苏海安人，副研级高工，本科，主要从事气象预报、农业气象服务方面的研究。通信地址：333000 江西省景德镇市昌江区瓷都大道219号 景德镇市气象局，Tel：0798-8584037，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    王金辉，女，1973年出生，高工，主要从事农业、气候及遥感监测方面的研究。通信地址：845350 新疆阿图什天山东路45号 克州气象局，Tel：0908-4222502，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    新疆气象科研面上项目“克州2018年5月极值暴雨发生机制及预报分析”(MS201915)

Response of Fig Planting to Climate Change in Kezhou of Xinjiang

WANG Jinhui1(), SUN Yue1, HUANG Longfei2(), WANG Dong1, QIAN Yu1, ZHANG Juanjuan1   

  1. 1 Kezhou Meteorological Bureau, Atushi, Xinjiang 845350
    2 Jingdezhen Meteorological Bureau, Jingdezhen, Jiangxi 333000
  • Received:2023-09-14 Revised:2025-04-15 Published:2025-07-05 Online:2025-07-10

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摘要： 探究克州特色林果无花果生长季气候资源的分布规律和变化特征，为农业生产合理利用气候资源提供理论依据。利用1981—2023年克州地区阿图什市果树生长季4—9月的气象资料，运用一元线性回归方程统计方法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法，分析阿图什无花果生长季（4—9月）气候资源变化特征，并结合地形分析其空间分布规律。结果表明，阿图什无花果生长季气温近43 a来呈缓慢上升趋势，1997年存在明显突变，存在3、8、30 a的震荡周期；降水量总趋势为上升趋势，1997年存在突变，存在2、5、8、30 a的震荡周期；日照时数受地形影响比较明显，近43 a来呈减少趋势，1996、2012年存在明显突变，存在2、5、20 a的震荡周期。从当地气候资源及时空分布规律来看，阿图什适合发展无花果产业，河谷盆地适合种植无花果，土壤、日较差以及大风、雨害、低温冻害、高温日灼等气象灾害对无花果生长有一定的影响，并针对主要气象灾害提出了相应的防御措施。

关键词: 阿图什, 无花果生长季, 热量资源, 水资源, 光资源, 气象灾害及对策

Abstract:

To identify the distribution patterns and variation characteristics of climate resources during the growing season of figs, which is a distinctive fruit of Kezhou, and to provide a theoretical basis for the rational utilization of climate resources in agricultural production, daily meteorological data of the Atush Station in Kezhou from 1981 to 2023 were utilized. Methods such as univariate linear regression equation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, and wavelet analysis were employed to analyze the variation characteristics of climate resources during the fig growing season (April to September) in Atush. Additionally, the spatial distribution patterns were analyzed in conjunction with topography. The results indicated that over the past 43 years, the temperature during the growing season in Atush had shown a mild upward trend, with a significant mutation occurring in 1997, and oscillation cycles of 3, 8 and 30 years. The overall trend of precipitation was also increasing, with a mutation in 1997 and oscillation cycles of 2, 5, 8 and 30 years. Sunshine duration was significantly influenced by topography, showing a decreasing trend over the past 43 years, with notable mutations in 1996 and 2012, and oscillation cycles of 2, 5 and 20 years. Based on the local climate resources and their spatiotemporal distribution patterns, it is concluded that Atush is suitable for developing distinctive fruits, particularly in areas near river valleys. However, factors such as soil conditions, diurnal temperature variations, and meteorological disasters like strong winds, heavy rain, low-temperature frost damages, and high temperatures have certain impacts on fig growth. Corresponding defensive measures are proposed.

Key words: Atushi, fig growing season, heat resources, water resources, light resources, meteorological disasters and countermeasures