欢迎访问《中国农学通报》，
中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (35): 110-118.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0249

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

软枣猕猴桃成熟期大风变化特征及致灾风险分析——以丹东地区为例

董海涛1(), 吴欢峰1, 单璐璐1, 李如楠1, 刘东明2()   

  1. 1 丹东市气象局，辽宁丹东 118000
    2 辽宁省生态气象和卫星遥感中心，沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-08 修回日期:2024-09-20 出版日期:2024-12-15 发布日期:2024-12-12
  • 通讯作者:
    刘东明，男，1986年出生，辽宁朝阳人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象灾害监测方面的研究。通信地址：110166 沈阳市和平区长白南路388号，Tel：02483187008，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    董海涛，男，1980年出生，黑龙江人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气候方面的研究。通信地址：118000 辽宁省丹东市振兴区表厂路159号 丹东市气象局，Tel：0415-2151484，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J008); 丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2024030)

Variation Characteristics and Disaster Risk Analysis of Strong Wind in Ripening Period of Actinidia Arguta: A Case Study of Dandong Area

DONG Haitao1(), WU Huanfeng1, SHAN Lulu1, LI Runan1, LIU Dongming2()   

  1. 1 Dandong City Bureau of Meteorology, Dandong, Liaoning 118000
    2 Liaoning Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center, Shenyang 110166
  • Received:2024-04-08 Revised:2024-09-20 Published:2024-12-15 Online:2024-12-12

RichHTML

3

PDF (PC)

23

摘要：

为全面了解大风灾害对软枣猕猴桃成熟期影响，利用1991—2020年丹东地区4个站点软枣猕猴桃成熟期的气象资料，以极大风速≥12.0 m/s作为大风致灾风险临界指标，综合考虑频次、强度和持续时间，制定了轻度、中度、重度大风致灾风险等级，通过灾害发生次数和站次比分析软枣猕猴桃大风灾害的变化规律，基于信息扩散理论评估大风致灾风险概率。结果表明：30 a间丹东地区软枣猕猴桃成熟期极大风速呈下降趋势，大风过程发生天数呈减少趋势，其中振安地区降幅最小，且发生大风的年数和天数为最多，更容易发生大风灾害风险。30 a间丹东地区软枣猕猴桃成熟期不同等级大风发生次数的时间变化特征明显，3个等级大风灾害发生次数轻度>中度>重度，发生概率与之相一致，分别为66.5%、13.4%和10.0%，对应历史重现期为二年、十年和十年一遇以上，同时3个等级大风灾害对应的风险概率高值区域为：凤城（轻度）、振安（中度）和东港（重度）。各地区发生大风灾害的概率由高到低依次为振安、凤城、东港和宽甸，其超越概率分别为95.0%、89.9%、86.6%和33.4%，大风灾害在一至三年一遇范围。研究结果得出了各站点不同大风灾害的风险概率和重现期规律，为科学应对软枣猕猴桃成熟期大风灾害提供参考依据。

关键词: 软枣猕猴桃, 成熟期, 大风致灾, 信息扩散, 风险概率

Abstract:

In order to fully understand the impact of strong wind disaster on the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta, the meteorological data of the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta at four stations in Dandong from 1991 to 2020 were used, and the maximum wind speed ≥12.0 m/s was used as the index of strong wind disaster. Considering the frequency, intensity and duration, the risk levels of mild, moderate and severe strong wind disaster were formulated. The variation law of strong wind disaster of Actinidia arguta was analyzed by the number of disasters and the ratio of stations, and the risk probability of strong wind disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory. The results showed that the maximum wind speed during the ripening period of Actinidia arguta in Dandong area showed a downward trend in the past 30 years, and the number of days of strong wind process showed a decreasing trend. Among them, the decrease in Zhen'an area was the smallest, and the number of years and days of strong wind was the most, which was more prone to strong wind disaster risk. The time variation characteristics of the occurrence times of different grades of strong wind disasters in the mature period of Actinidia arguta in Dandong area during 30 years were obvious. The occurrence times of three grades of strong wind disasters were mild > moderate > severe, and the occurrence probability was consistent with them, which were 66.5%, 13.4% and 10.0%, respectively. The corresponding historical recurrence periods were more than 2 years, 10 years and 10 years. At the same time, the high risk probability areas corresponding to the three grades of strong wind disasters were Fengcheng (mild), Zhen 'an (moderate) and Donggang (severe). The probability of gale disaster in each region from high to low was Zhen 'an, Fengcheng, Donggang and Kuandian, and their exceeding probabilities were 95.0%, 89.9%, 86.6% and 33.4%, respectively. The gale disaster was in the range of one to three years. The research results obtained the risk probability and return period law of different gale disasters at each site, which provided a reference for scientific response to the gale disaster in the mature period of Actinidia arguta.

Key words: Actinidia arguta, maturity period, wind disaster, information diffusion, risk probability