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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (27): 118-125.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0636

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆石河子西梅低温霜冻致灾风险评估

赵鹏程1(), 王倍贝1, 孙硕阳2, 林世杰1, 高宇2()   

  1. 1 新疆哈密市气象局，新疆哈密 839000
    2 新疆石河子气象局，新疆石河子 832000
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-14 修回日期:2025-06-19 出版日期:2025-09-25 发布日期:2025-10-07
  • 通讯作者:
    高宇，女，1995年出生，河北人，工程师，本科，研究方向：综合气象观测。通信地址：832000 新疆石河子气象局，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    赵鹏程，男，1994年出生，江苏人，工程师，本科，研究方向：综合气象观测。通信地址：839000 新疆哈密市气象局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项“新疆煤田火区综合治理及生态修复关键技术研究与示范”(2022B03027-3); 第三次新疆综合科学考察项目“北疆地区葡萄花期光温灾害指标体系研究”(2022xjkk1003)

Risk Assessment of Low-temperature Frost Disasters on Prunus domestica in Shihezi of Xinjiang

ZHAO Pengcheng1(), WANG Beibei1, SUN Shuoyang2, LIN Shijie1, GAO Yu2()   

  1. 1 Hami Meteorological Bureau, Hami, Xinjiang 839000
    2 Shihezi Meteorological Bureau, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000
  • Received:2024-10-14 Revised:2025-06-19 Published:2025-09-25 Online:2025-10-07

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摘要：

石河子地区西梅越冬及春季萌芽开花是关键物候期，探究该地区冬季低气温的变化以及春季终霜灾害风险强度对西梅产业发展至关重要。本文利用1961—2024年11月—翌年5月气温资料和西梅物候期资料，运用气候诊断分析方法，评价冬季气温变化和终霜冻对西梅生长的影响，并对终霜所造成的灾害风险强度加以研究。研究成果显示，西梅树新生枝条的半致死低温指标为-24.1℃。石河子地区自1961—2024年冬季严寒期低于指标温度的冻害风险高达82.2%。伴随气候变暖，2000年后冻害风险概率降至60.0%，且冷害平均下降22.2个百分点。春季终霜期倾向于更早结束，但其分布相对分散。4月下旬及更晚时期的终霜对西梅树的萌芽和开花构成威胁。4月下旬及以后的终霜风险为53.2%，2000年后下降了28.2个百分点。石河子地区平均终霜灾害风险强度为34.8%，中等灾害风险强度占比为23.4%，严霜灾害风险强度占比为28.1%。2000年后终霜灾害风险强度呈线性方式降低8.6个百分点。在气候变暖的作用下，冬季气温的上升以及霜冻结束时间的提前有益于西梅树安全越冬和春季的萌发生长、开花。即便冬季气温有所上升、终霜冻引发的灾害风险正在减弱，因极端气候变化的不稳定性，防冻防霜措施仍是保障石河子西梅产量与品质的关键技术需求。

关键词: 西梅, 越冬期, 开花期, 低温冷害, 终霜冻, 致灾风险度

Abstract:

The overwintering period and spring germination-flowering stage of Prunus domestica in the Shihezi region are critical phenological phases. Investigating the changes in winter low temperatures and the risk intensity of spring final frost disasters in this area is crucial for the development of the Prunus domestica industry. This study uses temperature data from November to the following May (1961-2024) and phenological data of Prunus domestica, applying climate diagnostic analysis methods to evaluate the impacts of winter temperature changes and final frost on the growth of Prunus domestica, and to study the disaster risk intensity caused by final frost. The results showed that the semi-lethal low-temperature index for new branches of Prunus domestica was -24.1℃. The risk of frost damage below this index temperature during the winter severe cold period in Shihezi from 1961 to 2024 was as high as 82.2%. With climate warming, the probability of frost damage risk dropped to 60.0% after 2000, and the average cold damage decreased by 22.2 percentage points. The spring final frost period tended to end earlier, but its distribution was relatively scattered. Final frosts in late April and later posed a threat to the germination and flowering of Prunus domestica. The risk of final frost in late April and beyond was 53.2%, which decreased by 28.2 percentage points after 2000. The average final frost disaster risk intensity in Shihezi was 34.8%, with moderate disaster risk intensity accounting for 23.4% and severe frost disaster risk intensity accounting for 28.1%. After 2000, the final frost disaster risk intensity decreased linearly by 8.6 percentage points. Under the influence of climate warming, the rise in winter temperatures and the earlier end of frost are beneficial to the safe overwintering of Prunus domestica and its spring germination, growth, and flowering. Even though winter temperatures have risen and the disaster risk caused by final frost is weakening, due to the instability of extreme climate changes, frost prevention measures remain a key part of Prunus domestica production.

Key words: Prunus domestica, overwintering period, flowering period, low-temperature cold damage, final frost, disaster risk degree