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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 170-177.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0137

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

1992—2022年日喀则气候变化特征及其对春青稞生长发育的影响

普布多吉1(), 洛桑旺姆1, 旦增益嘎1, 周刊社1(), 史继清1, 张东东1, 旦增维色2   

  1. 1 西藏自治区气候中心， 拉萨 850000
    2 日喀则市拉孜县气象局， 西藏拉孜 858100
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-28 修回日期:2025-12-29 出版日期:2026-03-18 发布日期:2026-03-18
  • 通讯作者:
    周刊社，男，1977年出生，陕西周至人，正研级高级工程师，硕士，研究方向：生态与农业气象、应对气候变化。通信地址：850000 西藏自治区城关区林廓北路2号，Tel：0891-6361095，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    普布多吉，男，1987年出生，西藏琼结人，工程师，本科，研究方向：生态与农业气象、应对气候变化。通信地址：850000 西藏自治区拉萨市林廓北路2号，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    西藏自治区人才资源开发专项“藏北高原主要牧业气象灾害监测预警技术研究及应用”; 西风-季风协同作用及其环境效应(2019QZKK0106)

Characteristics of Climate Change in Xigazê from 1992 to 2022 and Its Impact on Growth and Development of Spring Highland Barley

PUBU Duoji1(), LUOSANG Wangmu1, DANZEN Yiga1, ZHOU Kanshe1(), SHI Jiqing1, ZHANG Dongdong1, DANZEN Weise2   

  1. 1 Tibet Climate Center, Lhasa 850000
    2 Lhaze County Meteorological Bureau, Lhaze, Xizang 858100
  • Received:2025-02-28 Revised:2025-12-29 Published:2026-03-18 Online:2026-03-18

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摘要：

为了研究气候变化对日喀则春青稞生长发育的影响，利用日喀则1992—2022年春青稞生长季（4—9月）气象数据及春青稞发育期站点观测资料，采用统计方法、一元线性回归法、相关性分析及M-K检验法等对日喀则春青稞生育期气温、降水量及日照时数的年际变化特征及气象因子对春青稞生长发育期的影响进行研究。结果表明：（1）近31 a来，日喀则春青稞生长季年气温逐年呈升高趋势，平均每10 a升高0.57℃，与当地年平均气温相比升高趋势更加明显；生长季年平均降水量为422.8 mm，年平均降水量为430.6 mm，均呈弱较少趋势，主要降水集中在春青稞生长季内，占年均总降水量的90%以上，利于满足春青稞主要发育关键期的需水；生长季平均日照时数为1560.4 h，逐年呈弱减少趋势，平均每10 a减少15.8 h，未通过著性检验。（2）日喀则春青稞全生育期平均为118 d，并逐年呈缩短趋势，平均每10 a缩短3.99 d，生育期缩短代表发育进程加快，对产量和品质有一定影响；（3）春青稞全生育期的天数减少主要由4个生育期造成，出苗—三叶期、拔节—孕穗期、孕穗—抽穗期、开花—乳熟期生育期天数呈延长趋势，延长率分别为0.11 d/10a、1.58 d/10a、0.73 d/10a、5.33 d/10a，其中出苗—三叶期延长天数最为不明显；春青稞全生育期的天数减少主要由5个生育期造成，播种—出苗期、三叶—分蘖期、分蘖—拔节期、抽穗—开花期、乳熟—成熟期生育期天数呈缩短趋势，缩短率分别为0.73 d/10a、2.60 d/10a、1.53 d/10a、1.06 d/10a、7.22 d/10a，其中乳熟—成熟期缩短速率最大，三叶—分蘖期次之；生育期天数缩短对产量形成不利，尤其是乳熟—成熟期缩短会导致灌浆不足、籽粒干瘪，从而影响产量和品质。研究成果可为当地政府部门提供决策依据，为西藏高原未来特色农业可持续发展和粮食安全保障提供科学依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 春青稞, 生长季, 日喀则, M-K检验, 影响

Abstract:

In order to study the impact of climate change on the growth and development of spring barley in Xigazê, meteorological data of the spring barley growth season (April September) in Xigazê from 1992 to 2022 and station observation data during the spring barley development period were used. Statistical methods, univariate linear regression, correlation analysis, and M-K test were used to analyze the interannual variation characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours during the growth period of spring barley in Xigazê, as well as the influence of meteorological factors on the growth and development period of spring barley. The results showed: (1) In the past 31 years, the annual temperature during the growing season of spring barley in Xigazê has been increasing year by year, with an average increase of 0.57 ℃ every 10 years, which is more significant than the local annual average temperature; the average annual precipitation during the growing season was 422.8 mm and the average annual precipitation is 430.6 mm, both showing a weak downward trend. The main precipitation is concentrated in the growing season of spring barley, accounting for more than 90% of the total annual precipitation, which is conducive to meeting the water demand of barley during the key development period; the average sunshine hours during the growing season are 1560.4 hours, showing a weak decreasing trend year by year, with an average decrease of 15.8 hours every 10 years, which did not pass the extreme significance test. (2) The average growth period of spring barley in Xigazê is 118 days, and it shows a decreasing trend year by year, with an average decrease of 3.99 days every 10 years. A shortened growth period represents an accelerated development process and has a certain impact on yield and quality; (3) the decrease in the number of days during the entire growth period of spring barley is mainly caused by four growth periods. The growth period days from emergence to three leaf stage, jointing to booting stage, booting to heading stage, and flowering to milk maturity stage show a trend of extension, with extension rates of 0.11 d/10a, 1.58 d/10a, 0.73 d/10a, 5.33 d/10a, respectively. Among them, the extension days from emergence to three leaf stage are the least significant; than, the decrease in the number of days during the entire growth period of spring barley is mainly caused by five growth periods. The number of days in the growth period from sowing to emergence, from three leaves to tillering, from tillering to jointing, from heading to flowering, and from milk maturity to maturity showed a decreasing trend, with shortening rates of 0.73 d/10a, 2.60 d/10a, 1.53 d/10a, 1.06 d/10a, 7.22 d/10a, respectively. The shortening rate was the highest from the milk-ripe stage to the maturity stage, followed by that from the three-leaf stage to the tillering stage., followed by the milk maturity stage; Shortening the length of the growth period is not conducive to yield formation, especially during the milk ripening maturity period, which can lead to insufficient grain filling and withered grains, thereby affecting yield and quality. The research results can provide decision-making basis for local government departments and scientific basis for the future sustainable development of characteristic agriculture and food security in Xizang Plateau.

Key words: climate change, spring barley, growing season, Xigazê, Mann-Kendall test, impact