基于最大熵模型预测当前及未来气候情景下福寿螺在南京的潜在地理分布

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0363

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探明福寿螺在南京地区的潜在适生区域及其关键影响因素，本研究整合了该物种在南京的地理分布点位数据和相关环境变量，基于最大熵(Maximum entropy, MaxEnt)模型，预测了当前和未来不同气候情境下其在南京的潜在地理分布格局。结果表明，MaxEnt模型预测精确度较高（AUC值为0.868±0.031），预测结果可信；人口密度、最干月降水量、年均温度和昼夜温差月均值是影响福寿螺潜在地理分布的关键环境因子，累计贡献率达86.0%；当前气候条件下，福寿螺在南京的潜在适生区主要集中在长江沿岸及南部地区，总面积约3071.4 km²。在未来3个时期（2041—2060、2061—2080、2081—2100年）和3种共享经济社会发展路径(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)条件下，福寿螺在南京的潜在适生区范围将持续扩大，尤其是高度适生区面积会明显增加。因此，亟需采取措施加强福寿螺的管理和防治。本研究结果可为南京市福寿螺的监测、预警及管理策略提供科学参考。

关键词: 福寿螺, 最大熵模型, 生物入侵, 潜在适生区, 南京

Abstract:

In order to understand the potential suitable area for Pomacea canaliculata in Nanjing and its influencing factors, this study utilized the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential geographical distribution of P. canaliculata in Nanjing under current and future climate scenarios based on its existing distribution samples and environmental variables. The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.868±0.031. The factor contribution rate and knife cutting method test both suggested that population density, precipitation of the driest month, annual mean temperature, and mean diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors determing its potential geographic distribution of P. canaliculata, the total contribution rates of four environmental variables was 86.0%. Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable area for P. canaliculata in Nanjing was 3071.4 km², mainly located along both banks of the Yangtze River and its southern regions. In future climate scenario (three periods: 2041-2060, 2061-2081 and 2081-2100, three shared socioeconomic pathway: SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585), the potential geographical distribution of P. canaliculata in Nanjing will expand, and the highly suitable area also will significantly increase. Therefore, measures must be taken to strengthen the management and prevention of P. canaliculata. The research results can provide scientific references for monitoring, early warning, and management strategies of P. canaliculata in Nanjing.

Key words: Pomacea canaliculata, MaxEnt model, biological invasion, potential suitable area, Nanjing

李大命, 刘燕山, 钟立强, 王超群, 王庆, 代培, 俞雅文. 基于最大熵模型预测当前及未来气候情景下福寿螺在南京的潜在地理分布[J]. 中国农学通报, 2025, 41(33): 96-103.

LI Daming, LIU Yanshan, ZHONG Liqiang, WANG Chaoqun, WANG Qing, DAI Pei, YU Yawen. Potential Geographical Distribution of Pomacea canaliculata in Nanjing Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Based on Maximum Entropy Model[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2025, 41(33): 96-103.

图/表 8

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未来时期	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
2041—2060年	0.860±0.037	0.857±0.042	0.862±0.052
2061—2080年	0.876±0.034	0.865±0.042	0.856±0.066
2081—2100年	0.852±0.040	0.866±0.037	0.852±0.022

未来时期	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
2041—2060年	0.860±0.037	0.857±0.042	0.862±0.052
2061—2080年	0.876±0.034	0.865±0.042	0.856±0.066
2081—2100年	0.852±0.040	0.866±0.037	0.852±0.022

环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
population	37.9	8.6
bio14	21.6	4.0
bio1	17.4	20.3
bio2	9.1	27.8
elevation	2.7	4.9
bio13	2.7	8.1
bio9	2.3	10.6
bio8	2.2	5.1
bio12	2.2	5.6
bio18	2.1	4.9

环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
population	37.9	8.6
bio14	21.6	4.0
bio1	17.4	20.3
bio2	9.1	27.8
elevation	2.7	4.9
bio13	2.7	8.1
bio9	2.3	10.6
bio8	2.2	5.1
bio12	2.2	5.6
bio18	2.1	4.9

地理分布	SSP126			SSP245			SSP585
地理分布	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100	2041—2060	2061—2080	2081—2100
非适生区	1215.5	2242.7	2523.3	93.8	50.2	1935.2	116.3	/	/
低适生区	392.6	751.0	1092.6	112.7	371.5	899.3	204.3	29.8	/
中适生区	937.1	1247.5	1136.2	410.7	760.4	1461.9	729.1	489.2	/
高适生区	4041.9	2345.9	1834.9	5969.8	5404.9	2290.7	5537.3	6068.0	6587.0