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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 156-164.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0661

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

BCC-CSM2-MR模式下呼伦贝尔地区大豆种植气候适宜性变化分析

有思1(), 姜湖园1, 有维2, 王雅莹1, 赵岳冀1()   

  1. 1 呼伦贝尔市气象局， 内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
    2 中国民用航空呼伦贝尔空中交通管理站， 内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-08 修回日期:2025-12-26 出版日期:2026-04-25 发布日期:2026-04-23
  • 通讯作者:
    赵岳冀，女，1988年出生，工程师，硕士，主要从事农牧林气象研究和服务。通信地址：021008 内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市海拉尔区根河路与哈萨尔大街交叉口附近 海拉尔区河东根河路 呼伦贝尔市气象局，Tel：0470-8244470，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    有思，女，1996年出生，工程师，硕士，主要从事农牧林气象研究和服务。通信地址：021008 内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市海拉尔区根河路与哈萨尔大街交叉口附近 海拉尔区河东根河路 呼伦贝尔市气象局，Tel：0470-8244470，E-mail：。

Suitability Analysis of Soybean Planting in Hulunbuir Area Under BCC-CSM2-MR Model

YOU Si1(), JIANG Huyuan1, YOU Wei2, WANG Yaying1, ZHAO Yueji1()   

  1. 1 Hulunbuir Meteorological Bureau, Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia 021008
    2 Hulunbuir Civil Aviation Air Traffic Control Station, Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia 021008
  • Received:2025-08-08 Revised:2025-12-26 Published:2026-04-25 Online:2026-04-23

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摘要：

气候是影响农作物生产的主要自然因素，气候变化将对大豆生产带来显著影响。针对气候变化对大豆影响研究不足，适应策略更为稀缺的现状，本研究以呼伦贝尔地区为研究对象，利用1992—2022年大豆生育期数据，以及2023—2052年CMIP6模式BCC-CSM2-MR模型的SSP1-26（低排放）、SSP2-45（中等排放）、SSP5-85（高排放）3种气候情景的模拟数据，构建了大豆种植气候适宜度模型，并利用反距离权重、自然断点法、线性趋势分析等方法，评估未来气候变化对大豆种植气候适宜性的影响。结果表明：在SSP1-26、SSP2-45、SSP5-85这3种气候情景下，温度适宜度高度适宜区面积均呈下降趋势；降水适宜度变化表现出情景依赖性，高排放情景下降水适宜性较高，中、低排放情景对降水适宜性影响较小；日照适宜度高度适宜区面积普遍增加，表明日照对研究区大豆种植的积极作用将进一步增强。整体来看，大部分区域的综合适宜度位于0.60~0.65之间，高度适宜区主要集中在呼伦贝尔东南部地区。

关键词: 呼伦贝尔, 大豆, 适宜性, BCC-CSM2-MR模式

Abstract:

Climate is the main natural factor affecting crop production. With the further development of climate change, soybean production will also face significant changes. At present, there are relatively few studies on the impact of climate change on soybeans, and research on adaptation strategies is even scarcer. Therefore, taking the Hulunbuir region as the research object in this study, the climate suitability model for soybean cultivation was constructed by using the data of soybean growth period from 1991 to 2022 and the simulation data of three climate scenarios, namely SSP1-26 (low emission), SSP2-45 (moderate emission), and SSP5-85 (high emission), of the BCC-CSM2-MR model of the CMIP6 model from 2023 to 2052. The changes in the climate suitability for soybean cultivation were analyzed by using methods such as reverse distance weight, natural breakpoints, and linear trend analysis. The results show that under the three climate scenarios of SSP1-26, SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, the area of the height suitability zone in the temperature suitability zone shows a downward trend compared with the previous 30 years. The evolution of precipitation suitability shows scenario differentiation. The high emission scenario has relatively high precipitation suitability, while the medium and low emission scenarios have a slight impact on precipitation suitability. Compared with the first 30 years, the solar suitability zoning under the three climate scenarios shows an increasing trend in the highly suitable zones, and the contribution of solar suitability to the study area will be further enhanced. Overall, under the three climate scenarios, the comprehensive suitability of most areas is between 0.60 and 0.65, and the highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast of Hulunbuir.

Key words: Hulunbuir, soybean, suitability, BCC-CSM2-MR model

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