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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (20): 235-240.

所属专题: 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖北省城市化和耕地变动协调性研究

李春华 李宁 张飞 李浩   

  • 收稿日期:2011-02-09 修回日期:2011-03-21 出版日期:2011-08-15 发布日期:2011-08-15

A Study on Coordination between Urbanization and Farmland Resources in Hubei Province

  • Received:2011-02-09 Revised:2011-03-21 Online:2011-08-15 Published:2011-08-15

摘要:

研究城市化和耕地资源的协调问题,对于适度城市化战略制定和保护耕地资源具有重要意义。笔者首先应用协整理论判定湖北省城市化和耕地资源变动数据的平稳性,进而借鉴经济与环境协调度模型,构建城市化与耕地变化协调度模型,基于《湖北省统计年鉴》数据对湖北省城市化与耕地变动类型进行实证分析。结果发现,湖北省城市化和耕地资源变动存在非线性关系;研究时段湖北省城市化和耕地变动协调度大部分年代协调度小于0.7,且表现出明显阶段性特点;大部分年份湖北省耕地资源与城市化水平协调度呈现调和型、基本调和型、勉强调和型3种类型。这意味着所研究时段湖北省城市化和耕地变动之间存在不协调因素,最后,基于以上分析笔者提出了实现城市化和耕地资源协调的政策建议。

关键词: 儿茶素, 儿茶素, BP神经网络, ADS-8树脂, 洗脱

Abstract:

The study of the coordinating level between urbanization development and cultivated land change benefits both the formulation of appropriate urbanization scale and Implementation of severe cultivated land protection policy. Firstly, the cointegration theory was applied to analyze the data stability of urbanization and cultivated land change, then, coordination degree model was constructed using the model between economy and environment for reference, which was on basis of Hubei statistic yearbook (1978-2002). We analyzed the relationship between urbanization and farmland resources change in Hubei Province. The result showed that there was a nonlinear coordination between urbanization and farmland resources change in Hubei Province. In most of the period, the coordination index between urbanization and farmland resources in Hubei Province was less than 0.7, and the status quo fluctuated from time to time. The coordination degree of cultivated land resources and urbanization level assumes the type of concession, basical concession and hardly concession in most ages, it implied that there existed some unharmonious factors in farmland decrease during the urbanization. At last, some suggestions were put forward to coordinate urbanization and the farmland resources change.