关键词: 烤烟, 烤烟, 免耕栽培, 土壤理化性状, 根系生长

Abstract: The aims were to study food quantity security of Sichuan Province, and provide scientific basis for government decision-making on food quantity security. The statistical number from 1978 to 2012 was used, and combined with minimum cropland acreage per capita (S_min) and cropland pressure index (K), to analyze the situation and development trend of cultivated land and food security in Sichuan Province, by using the GM(1,1) model to predict the food security trend of the next 6 years. The result showed that, from 1978 to 2012, S_min in Sichuan presented downtrend, food security was more reliable on the rise of per unit area yield of grain, multiple-cropping index and the slightly increase of land supply, so K didn’t show significant upward trend, and the food security was still under control, which helped to realize the policy requirement of “overall balance, basic self-sufficiency”. In the 21 cities and prefectures of Sichuan Province, there was great pressure on food security in Chengdu City, Panzhihua City, Leshan City, Ya’an City, Aba State, Ganzi State, and need to use the inventory or reallocation of food from other cities to ensure their market equilibrium. With the time passing-by, and under the pressure of in-depth development of urbanization and transformation and upgrade of industrialization, the food security issue will be more acute in Chengdu City and Panzhihua City. The study puts forward suggestions like improving the resource utilization rate on the base of strictly protecting the quantity of cultivated land, strengthening the construction of infrastructure, speeding up the breakthrough of new varieties and the popularization and application of new technology, preventing and reducing the disaster scientifically, and implementing different policy according to regional disparity.