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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (20): 165-176.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110151

所属专题： 农业气象

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对中国粮食生产、消费及经济增长的影响研究

黄德林,李喜明,鞠劭芃   

  1. (中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081)
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-29 修回日期:2016-06-28 接受日期:2016-06-06 出版日期:2016-07-15 发布日期:2016-07-15
  • 通讯作者: 黄德林
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）气候变化对我国粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究“我国粮食生产适应气候变化的政策研究”(2010CB951504-5)。

Climate Change Affecting Grain Production, Consumption and Economic Growth in China:Based on the Agricultural CGE Model

Huang Delin, Li Ximing, Ju Shaopeng   

  1. (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081)
  • Received:2015-11-29 Revised:2016-06-28 Accepted:2016-06-06 Online:2016-07-15 Published:2016-07-15

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摘要： 为研究气候变化对粮食生产、消费及经济增长影响，将气候变化影响粮食产量的研究结果作为一般均衡模型的政策模拟方案，通过构建的基期模拟预测研究了到2050年中国粮食生产、消费及其经济增长两个方面的内容。模拟结果显示：（1）到2050年，中国粮食生产总量在A2情景（高排放）下为629185×103 t，在B2（中低排放）情景下为601859×103 t。总需求在B2情景下为626609×103 t，在B2情景下为561093×103 t，不考虑损耗及库存，粮食供需基本平衡，供给略大于需求。（2）考虑CO2的肥效作用，到2050年，气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济产生有利影响，实际工资、实际GDP、投资、家庭消费、出口等宏观指标相比于基期都有所上升，对主要农业部门及工业和服务业部门的产出、消费、进出口也是有利影响。而不考虑CO2的肥效作用则会得到相反的结论。（3）在A2情景下气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济的有利影响要大于B2情景下的影响。（4）从气候变化对产出和需求影响的变化结果来看，从总体上来说，考虑CO2的肥效作用，无论是A2还是B2情景下，都导致供给增加，进口减少，增加的供给量大于需求。因此，考虑CO2肥效的作用，会增强供给的保障，有利于维护中国的粮食安全。而不考虑CO2的肥效作用，无论是A2还是B2情景下，都导致供给减少，进口增加，减少的供给量大于需求的变化量，不利于维护中国的粮食安全。

关键词: 梨, 梨, 套袋, 香气

Abstract: To study the effect of climate change on grain production, consumption and economic growth, using grain production and climate changes in previous researches, policy schemes in base period were simulated, grain production, consumption and economic growth by 2050 in China were predicted based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results showed that (1) by 2050, under the high carbon emission scenario (A2), the total grain yield was 629185 thousand tons, and the total consumption demand was 626609 thousand tons; under the medium and low carbon emission scenario (B2), the total grain yield was 601859 thousand tons, and the total consumption demand was 561093 thousand tons. Without regard to the loss and inventory, the supply and demand of grain was basically in a balance with supply slightly bigger than demand. (2) When taking the fertilizer effect of CO2 into consideration, climate change would have positive effects on China’s macro and sector economy by 2050. Macroeconomic indicators such as real wages, real GDP, investment and household consumption and export all increased compared with that of the base period; from the aspect of sector economy, climate change also had positive effects on the output, consumption, import and export of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry. However, the results were opposite without considering the fertilizer effect of CO2. (3) The positive effect of climate change on China’s macro and sector economy under A2 scenario was higher than that under B2 scenario. (4) Considering the effect of climate change on grain yield and demand, when taking the fertilizer effect of CO2 into consideration, grain supply increased and import reduced under both A2 and B2 scenarios, and the increased supply quantity was larger than that of the demand. Therefore, taking the fertilizer effect of CO2 into consideration would guarantee the supply and was beneficial to food security in China, while without considering the fertilizer effect of CO2, the results were opposite.