近31年来云南省潜在蒸散量变化成因

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16040033

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了探讨云南省潜在蒸散量(ET0)与气候变化间的效应，增强干旱发生预测的准确性，基于云南省1981—2011 年52 个站点气象数据，采用Penman-Monteith 公式计算逐年四季潜在蒸散量(ET0,w、ET0,s、ET0,e、ET0,u)以及年潜在蒸散量(ET0,y)，通过敏感系数和贡献率，分析了云南省ET0变化的成因。结果表明：（1）云南省ET0对气象因子的敏感程度从高到低为：平均气温＞相对湿度＞日照时数＞风速；相对湿度为高敏感因子，但对ET0的影响低于平均气温和日照时数。（2）云南省ET0变化的主导因子具有阶段性。1981—1990 年，日照时数减少是ET0,y下降的主要原因，1991—2011 年，平均气温上升是ET0,y上升的主要原因。（3）云南省ET0变化的主导因子具有季节性。1981—1990 年时段，云南省冬季ET0,w上升的主导因子是平均气温，春、夏、秋季ET0呈下降的主导因子均为日照时数；1991—2011 年时段，平均气温上升是冬季和秋季潜在蒸散量呈上升趋势的主要原因，春季ET0,s下降和夏季ET0,e呈上升趋势的主导因子均为日照时数。

关键词: 甜瓜, 甜瓜, 不同留果处理, 简约化栽培, 产量, 品质

Abstract: The paper aims to explore the relationship between ET0 and climate change in Yunnan for enhancing forecast accuracy of drought occurrence. Based on data of 52 meteorological stations in Yunnan from 1981 to 2011, the causes for ET0 change were analyzed by using sensitivity coefficient and the contribution rate, with the ET0 estimated by Penman-Monteith equation, including the annual ET0 (ET0,y) and the yearly ET0 of four seasons (ET0,w, ET0,s, ET0,e, ET0,u). The results showed that: (1) the order of sensitivity degree of ET0 in Yunnan to climatic factors was: the average temperature＞relative humidity＞sunshine hours＞wind speed; though the relative humidity was a high sensitive factor, its impact on ET0 was lower than average temperature and sunshine hours; (2) the leading factor of ET0 change in Yunnan had periodicity; the decreasing sunshine hours was the main factor leading to the decrease of ET0,y in 1981-1990, and in 1991-2011 the rising of average temperature was the leading factor of the ET0,y increase; (3) the leading factor of ET0 change in Yunnan had the seasonal characteristics; in 1981-1990, the leading factor of the increase of ET0,w in winter was the average temperature, and the leading factor of the other three seasons was the sunshine hours which led to their ET0 decrease; in 1991- 2011, the rising of average temperature was the dominating factor leading to the increase of ET0,w and ET0,u, and the leading factor of both the decrease of ET0,s and the increase of ET0,e was sunshine hours.

谢平. 近31年来云南省潜在蒸散量变化成因[J]. 中国农学通报, 2017, 33(5): 77-84.

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