关键词: 冬季, 负积温, 变化特征, 寿光, 突变, 趋势

Abstract:

The paper aims to reveal the variation regularity of negative accumulated temperature in winter in Shouguang, and make rational use of climate resources. Based on the daily mean temperature observation data of Shouguang from 1960 to 2018, the paper counted the negative accumulated temperature and the maximum duration of days, and analyzed the variation characteristic of them and their effects by using the method of modern climate diagnostic analysis, so as to provide a basis for industrial and agricultural production in Shouguang. The results showed that: (1) the negative accumulated temperature showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018 in Shouguang with the climate tendency rate of -32.8℃/10 a; the variation of negative accumulated temperature in winter showed a decreasing trend, and January contributed the most to winter warming; the negative accumulated temperature had a mutation in 1989; (2) the maximum duration of days of negative accumulated temperature in winter showed a decreasing trend in Shouguang with the climatic tendency rate of -5.0 d/10 a; the mean first day of the maximum duration of negative accumulated temperature was delayed by 12 days; in 2010s, the winter cold began late and ended early, showing 18 days shorter than the average of previous years; (3) negative accumulated temperature variation had both advantages and disadvantages on agriculture; (4) negative accumulated temperature had more advantages than disadvantages on industry.

Key words: winter, negative accumulated temperature, variation characteristics, Shouguang, mutation, trend