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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 196-205.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0884

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河中游降水集中度的变化特征及其环流背景

刘静(), 王鹏, 张荣刚(), 靳莉君   

  1. 黄河水利委员会水文局， 郑州 450004
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-23 修回日期:2026-01-07 出版日期:2026-03-18 发布日期:2026-03-18
  • 通讯作者:
    张荣刚，男，1970年出生，山东泗水人，教授级高级工程师，硕士，研究方向：水文气象预报。通信地址：450004 河南省郑州市金水区城北路东12号 黄河水利委员会水文局，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    刘静，女，1989年出生，河南濮阳人，高级工程师，硕士，研究方向：水文气象预报。通信地址：450004 河南省郑州市金水区城北路东12号 黄河水利委员会水文局，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“陆地水循环年际变异的分配机制、演变特征及其定量归因”(42171024); 河南省科技攻关项目“土壤湿度和海温异常对三门峡~花园口区间秋季降水的协同影响及预测应用”(252102321007)

Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration in Middle Reaches of Yellow River and Related Circulation Background

LIU Jing(), WANG Peng, ZHANG Ronggang(), JIN Lijun   

  1. Hydrology Bureau, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450004
  • Received:2025-10-23 Revised:2026-01-07 Published:2026-03-18 Online:2026-03-18

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摘要：

为探究黄河中游年降水非均匀分布的特征与规律，本研究基于CN05.1格点日降水数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据，采用相关分析、合成分析等方法，研究了黄河中游降水集中度指数(PCI)的变化特征，分析了PCI与降水的相关关系，并揭示了PCI异常年份的环流背景差异。结果表明：黄河中游PCI自南向北递增，与年降水量分布格局相反。流域PCI与盛夏期（7—8月）降水量关系最密切，PCI异常高值年盛夏期降水量均偏多，PCI异常低值年则相反；流域PCI与年极端降水日数、年极端降水量呈显著正相关关系，表明降水越集中，极端降水风险越高；PCI异常高、低值年盛夏期间环流背景差异明显，亚洲中高纬度位势高度距平场呈相反分布，与PCI异常低值年相比，PCI异常高值年西北太平洋副热带高压明显偏强、偏西、偏北，有利于降水偏多。研究成果有助于深化对黄河中游降水分配规律的认识，可为该地区水资源利用、农业生产以及防灾减灾提供科学参考依据。

关键词: 降水集中度, 时空变化特征, 大气环流, 极端降水, 黄河中游, 水资源利用

Abstract:

To explore the non-uniform distribution characteristics and variation patterns of annual precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, based on the CN05.1 gridded daily precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the paper studied the variation characteristics of the precipitation concentration index (PCI) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the correlation between PCI and precipitation and the circulation background differences of the years with abnormal PCI by employing the methods such as correlation analysis and synthesis analysis. The results showed that the PCI in the middle reaches of the Yellow River increased from south to north, which was opposite to the distribution pattern of annual precipitation; the PCI of the basin was most closely related to the precipitation during midsummer (July-August); the precipitation during midsummer in the years with abnormal high PCI was generally above average, while the opposite was true for years with abnormally low PCI; the PCI of the basin was significantly positively correlated with the annual extreme precipitation days and the annual extreme precipitation amount, indicating that the more concentrated the annual precipitation was, the higher the possibility of extreme precipitation would be; there were significant differences in the circulation background during midsummer between years with abnormal high PCI and years with abnormal low PCI, the potential height anomaly field in the mid-high latitudes of Asia for the two cases showed opposite distribution patterns. The northwestern pacific subtropical high during midsummer in the years with extremely high PCI was significantly stronger and simultaneously located more western and northern compared with that in the years with extremely low PCI, which was conducive to abnormal excessive precipitation. In short, the research findings contribute to a more comprehensive scientific understanding of the precipitation distribution patterns in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, while also provide a scientific reference for water resource utilization, agricultural production, and disaster prevention and reduction in the region.

Key words: precipitation concentration, spatial and temporal change, atmospheric circulation, extreme precipitation, middle reaches of the Yellow River, water resource utilization