关键词: 安徽, 安徽, 潜在蒸散量, 气象要素, 高斯随机扰动, 敏感性

Abstract: The paper aims to study the temporal and spatial changes of high temperature days in Xinyang city under the background of global warming. Based on meteorological monthly report of Xinyang from 1961 to 2015, the paper used the linear tendency method,simple correlation coefficient, path analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis to study the spatial and temporal variation of high temperature days in Xinyang City, The conclusion is that: Most days with high temperatures of 35℃ or over 35℃ in Xinyang City are in late July, and most days with high temperatures of 37 ℃ or over 37 ℃ and days with 40 ℃ or over 40 ℃ are in early August. The high temperature days in mountains and hills plain transition zone are less, and the high temperature days in plains and foothills are more. From 1961 to 2015 the high temperature period of Xinyang City was not significantly shortened or extended. From 1961 to 2015 High Temperature days was not significantly decreased, with the experience of a sharp decline in the first and then slow increase later. The humidity was the main factor affecting the high temperature days change annually in Xinyang, and the pressure, precipitation and sunshine was the secondary factor. There were four obvious periodic oscillations of the high temperature days in Xinyang City, respectively was 6, 21, 30 and 51. In the next few years Xinyang City will have high possibility of high temperatures.