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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (7): 171-175.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0789

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

黔东南州稻瘟病发生风险等级气象预报

文建川1(), 赖峥嵘1, 吴虑2, 阮玲丽3, 吴必良1, 梁平4()   

  1. 1 凯里市气象局， 贵州凯里 556000
    2 镇远县气象局， 贵州镇远 557700
    3 台江县气象局， 贵州台江 556300
    4 黔东南州气象局， 贵州凯里 556000
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-15 修回日期:2025-12-30 出版日期:2026-04-15 发布日期:2026-04-15
  • 通讯作者:
    梁平，女，1972年出生，贵州凯里人，正高，本科，主要从事农业气象服务工作。通信地址：556000 贵州省凯里市桐荫坪路45号 黔东南州气象局，Tel：0855-8502316，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    文建川，女，1994年出生，贵州榕江人，工程师，硕士，研究方向：综合气象服务。通信地址：556000 贵州省凯里市环城东路20号，Tel：0855-8365265，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    黔东南州科技计划项目“持续阴雨对黔东南州水稻生产的影响研究”(黔东南科合基础〔2023〕07号); 黔东南州科技计划项目“基于高质量发展的黔东南坝区农业气候资源优化利用研究”(黔东南科合基础〔2023〕06号)

Meteorological Forecast of Rice Blast Risk Level in Qiandongnan Prefecture

WEN Jianchuan1(), LAI Zhengrong1, WU Lyu2, RUAN Lingli3, WU Biliang1, LIANG Ping4()   

  1. 1 Kaili Meteorological Bureau, Kaili, Guizhou 556000
    2 Zhenyuan Meteorological Bureau, Zhenyuan, Guizhou 557700
    3 Taijiang Meteorological Bureau, Taijiang, Guizhou 556300
    4 Qiandongnan Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Kaili, Guizhou 556000
  • Received:2025-09-15 Revised:2025-12-30 Published:2026-04-15 Online:2026-04-15

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摘要：

为提升黔东南州稻瘟病气象预报的准确性，基于2015—2021年黔东南州16个县（市）的气象观测数据与稻瘟病发生记录，构建促病气象指数(Z)。通过回归分析，建立稻瘟病气象等级预测模型Z=0.17x+0.90，该模型相关系数为0.73。依据Z值将病害气象等级划分为4级，0≤Z<4为1级，4≤Z<10为2级，10≤Z<15为3级，Z≥15为4级，等级越高表明气象条件越有利于稻瘟病发生。经验证，该模型对黔东南州稻瘟病等级的预报准确率达69.2%，促病指数可有效用于黔东南州稻瘟病气象等级预报。研究结果可为该地区稻瘟病防控提供科学依据。

关键词: 水稻, 稻瘟病, 促病指数, 病害等级, 气象因素

Abstract:

Based on meteorological data and rice blast records from 16 counties (cities) in Qiandongnan Prefecture from 2015 to 2021, the paper calculated a meteorological disease-promoting index Z, and established a predictive model for the meteorological grade of rice blast occurrence using regression analysis: Z=0.17x+0.90, with a correlation coefficient of 0.73. Based on the Z value, the meteorological risk of the disease was classified into 4 grades: Grade 1 (0≤Z<4), Grade 2 (4≤Z<10), Grade 3 (10≤Z<15), and Grade 4 (Z≥15). Higher grades indicated that meteorological conditions were more conducive to disease occurrence. The model was applied to predict rice blast grades across the region, achieving an accuracy rate of 69.2%. The results demonstrated that the disease-promoting index method could be effectively used for meteorological grade prediction of rice blast in Qiandongnan Prefecture, providing a scientific basis for disease prevention and control in the region.

Key words: rice, rice blast, disease-promoting index, disease severity level, meteorological factors