气候变化对西和县玉米生育期及产量的影响

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0269

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究甘肃省西和县气候变化特征及其对玉米生育期和产量的影响，本研究基于甘肃省西和县1991—2025年的气象与玉米观测资料，采用一元线性回归、相关分析、气候贡献等方法，系统分析了玉米生育期内关键气象要素的变化趋势，并量化了其对生育期和产量的影响。结果表明：（1）近35 a，西和县玉米生育期内的气候呈暖湿化趋势，平均气温以0.5℃/10a(P<0.05)的速率显著升高，降水量虽呈增加趋势(19.9 mm/10a)但不显著，日照时数则以39.2 h/10a(P<0.05)的速率显著减少。（2）受气候变化影响，玉米的出苗期、乳熟期、成熟期均出现显著提前，导致玉米全生育期显著缩短(-4.5 d/10a, P<0.05)；相关性分析发现，玉米全育期时长与平均气温呈显著负相关(R=-0.39, P<0.05)，与降水量、日照时数的相关性均未达显著水平。水、光等因子只对特定生育期影响显著，出苗期降水量与提前出苗呈显著负相关(R=-0.42, P<0.05)，表明充足降水有利于促进出苗，而抽雄期与日照时数呈显著负相关(R=-0.45, P<0.05)，暗示日照不足可能导致抽雄推迟。（3）在产量方面，1991—2025年玉米实际产量呈显著下降趋势，气象产量波动较大。其中，抽雄期降水不足与成熟期日照缺乏、降水过多，是限制气象产量的关键因子。据此建议，西和县在玉米生产中，应优先选育生育期较长、耐热性更强的优良品种，重点防范抽雄期的干旱风险与成熟期的连阴雨天气，通过采取补充灌溉和及时排水等综合性农事管理措施，以期保障玉米生产的产量稳定性和可持续性。

关键词: 气候变化, 玉米, 生育期, 产量, 西和县

Abstract:

To investigate the characteristics of climate change in Xihe County, Gansu Province, and explore its impact on maize growth stages and yield, this study analyzed meteorological and maize observation data from 1991 to 2025. Univariate linear regression, correlation analysis, and climate contribution rate analysis were applied to systematically analyze changes in key meteorological elements during maize growth stages and their effects on growth duration and yield. The findings indicate: (1) Over the past 35 years, the climate during the maize growing season in Xihe County has shown a warming and moistening trend. The average temperature has significantly increased at a rate of 0.5℃ per decade (P<0.05). Although precipitation showed an increasing trend (19.9 mm per decade), it was not significant. Sunshine duration has significantly decreased at a rate of 39.2 hours per decade (P<0.05). (2) Influenced by climate change, maize emergence, milk stage, and maturity have significantly advanced, while the whole growth duration has significantly shortened (-4.5 days/decade, P<0.05). Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between whole growth duration and average temperature (R=−0.39, P<0.05), while correlations with precipitation and sunshine duration were not significant. Water and light factors significantly influenced only specific growth stages: emergence showed a significant negative correlation with precipitation (R=−0.42, P<0.05), and adequate rainfall promoting earlier emergence; while tasseling exhibited a significant negative correlation with sunshine duration (R=−0.45, P<0.05), suggesting that insufficient sunshine may delay tasseling. (3) Actual maize yields showed a significant downward trend from 1991 to 2025, with considerable meteorological yield variability. Key factors limiting meteorological yield included insufficient precipitation during tasseling, insufficient sunshine duration during maturity, and excessive precipitation during maturity. On this basis, it is recommended that local producers in Xihe County should select and breed maize varieties with longer growing seasons and heat tolerance. Special attention should be paid to preventing drought during the tasseling stage and continuous rainy weather during the ripening stage, and measures such as supplemental irrigation and timely drainage should be taken to ensure stable yields.

Key words: climate change, maize, growth stage, yield, Xihe County

中图分类号:

李春艳, 薛耀, 江一凡, 南宏杰, 胡兴宇. 气候变化对西和县玉米生育期及产量的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2026, 42(18): 133-140.

LI Chunyan, XUE Yao, JIANG Yifan, NAN Hongjie, HU Xingyu. Impact of Climate Change on Maize Growth Period and Yield in Xihe County[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(18): 133-140.

图/表 10

参考文献 31

[1]	IPCC. Climate Change 2022:Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group Ⅱ to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[C]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022.
[2]	李延林, 颜亮东. 西北地区降水特征及其变化趋势研究综述[J]. 青海科技, 2011, 18(5):69-76.
[3]	李栋梁, 魏丽, 蔡英, 等. 中国西北现代气候变化事实与未来趋势展望[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003(2):135-142.
[4]	商沙沙, 廉丽姝, 马婷, 等. 近54a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(1):68-76. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.01.09
[5]	张强, 朱飙, 杨金虎, 等. 西北地区气候湿化趋势的新特征[J]. 科学通报, 2021, 66(Z2):3757-3771.
[6]	丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 徐影, 等. 全球气候变化的区域响应:中国西北地区气候“暖湿化”趋势、成因及预估研究进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2023, 38(6):551-562. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.027
[7]	陈源源. 气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2021, 37(12):51-57. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0402
[8]	王勇, 张镇涛, 张方亮, 等. 气候变化背景下玉米品种更替对新疆光热资源利用效率的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41(6):331-344.
[9]	段金省, 牛国强. 气候变化对陇东塬区玉米播种期的影响[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2007(2):235-238.
[10]	周忠文, 刘英, 邱宁刚. 陇东塬区春玉米对气候暖湿化的响应及应对[J]. 中国农学通报, 2025, 41(17):88-95. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0313
[11]	赵国良, 高强, 姚小英, 等. 天水市玉米生长对气候变暖的响应[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2012, 20(3):363-368.
[12]	PRASAD P V V, JAGADISH S V K. Field crops and the fear of heat stress-opportunities, challenges and future directions[J]. Procedia environmental sciences, 2015, 29:36-37. doi: 10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.144 URL
[13]	陈朝辉, 王安乐, 王娇娟, 等. 高温对春玉米生产的危害及防御措施[J]. 作物杂志, 2008(4):90-92.
[14]	尹小刚, 王猛, 孔箐锌, 等. 东北地区高温对玉米生产的影响及对策[J]. 应用生态学报, 2015, 26(1):186-198.
[15]	江铭诺, 刘朝顺, 高炜. 华北平原夏玉米潜在产量时空演变及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2018, 26(6):865-876.
[16]	张荣荣. 气候变化下粮食生产核心区农户种植适应策略研究[D]. 开封: 河南大学,2018:32-33.
[17]	马晓玲, 周焱博, 袁杰, 等. 阳泉市玉米生育期气象要素变化特征及相关性分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2024, 40(7):118-122. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0281
[18]	李辉, 姚凤梅, 张佳华, 等. 东北地区玉米气象产量变化及其对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2014, 35(4):423-428.
[19]	杨笛. 中国玉米产量增长的驱动因素分析[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院,2017:44-45.
[20]	魏风英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社,2007:36-41.
[21]	朱玉祥, 江剑民, 赵亮, 等. 不同计算形式的相关分析在气象中的应用综述[J]. 热带气象学报, 2021, 37(1):1-13.
[22]	车晓翠, 李洪丽, 张春燕, 等. 1980年代以来气候变化对吉林省玉米产量的影响[J]. 水土保持研究, 2021, 28(2):230-234.
[23]	薛昌颖, 霍治国, 李世奎, 等. 华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2003(1):131-139.
[24]	施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥, 等. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(2):219-226.
[25]	WANG Y, ZHOU B, QIN D, et al. Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China: observation and projection[J]. Advances in atmospheric sciences, 2017, 34(3):289-305. doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5
[26]	DONG J W, LIU J Y, TAO F L, et al. Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000[J]. Climate research, 2009, 40(1):37-48. doi: 10.3354/cr00823 URL
[27]	XIAO D P, TAO F L, LIU Y C J, et al. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009[J]. International journal of biometeorology, 2013, 57(2):275-285. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0552-8 pmid: 22562530
[28]	肖登攀, 陶福禄. 过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2012, 20(11):1539-1545.
[29]	ZHANG T Y, HUANG Y, YANG X G. Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice[J]. Global change biology, 2013, 19(2):563-570. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12057 pmid: 23504793
[30]	VITASSE Y, FRANCOIS C, DELPIERRE N, et al. Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2011, 151(7):969-980. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.003 URL
[31]	秦雅, 刘玉洁, 葛全胜. 气候变化背景下1981—2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5):906-916. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201805010

	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温/(℃/10a)	0.5^*	0.4^*	0.4^*	0.5^*	0.6^*	0.5^*
降水量/(mm/10a)	9.0^*	-5.2	6.5	3.2	3.2	19.9
日照时数/(h/10a)	5.2	-8.4	-11.3	-11.4	-12.8^*	-39.2^*

	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温/(℃/10a)	0.5^*	0.4^*	0.4^*	0.5^*	0.6^*	0.5^*
降水量/(mm/10a)	9.0^*	-5.2	6.5	3.2	3.2	19.9
日照时数/(h/10a)	5.2	-8.4	-11.3	-11.4	-12.8^*	-39.2^*

玉米生育期	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
趋势/(d/10a)	-2.8^*	-2.0	0.00	-3.1^*	-5.3^*	-4.5^*
R²	0.17	0.07	0.00	0.12	0.27	0.33

玉米生育期	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
趋势/(d/10a)	-2.8^*	-2.0	0.00	-3.1^*	-5.3^*	-4.5^*
R²	0.17	0.07	0.00	0.12	0.27	0.33

	出苗期	拔节期	抽雄期	乳熟期	成熟期	全育期
平均气温	-0.25	-0.18	-0.34^*	-0.19	-0.37^*	-0.39^*
降水量	-0.42^*	-0.02	0.31	-0.14	0.00	-0.23
日照时数	0.09	0.02	-0.45^*	0.22	0.19	0.31