关键词: 黄河滩区, 黄河滩区, 草业工程, 展望

Abstract: Terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity are the important index of ecological carrying. With observational daily meteorological data, areas data of terrestrial ecosystem, output data of livestock and marine product in Heilongjiang Province from 1967 to 2006, based on the overall views of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, the model calculation methods were applied, the terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity were analyzed. The results show that the total average yearly productivity of terrestrial ecosystem was 1.67×1011 kg DM• a-1 in Heilongjiang Province from 1967 to 2006, the total average yearly productivity of forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland were respectively 0.85×1011,0.43×1011 ,0.13×1011 and 0.25×1011 kg DM• a-1, the total average yearly carrying capacities were respectively 0.85×108、0.72×108 and 0.63×108 under three consumption levels of well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus consumption levels. The total yearly productivity of terrestrial ecosystem were respectively 2.21×1011, 2.32×1011 and 2.41×1011 kg DM• a-1 in 2020, 2050 and 2100, the total carrying capacities were respectively 1.15×108,0.98×108, 0.88×108；1.22×108,1.03×108,0.94×108；1.27×108,1.07×108,0.98×108 for the above consumption levels in Heilongjiang Province. The total population is 0.38×108 at present in Heilongjiang Province, the food export capacity is considerably powerful under surplus consumption levels for Heilongjiang Province, the status of Heilongjiang Province is important for the food safety strategy in China.