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中国农学通报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 249-255.

所属专题: 农业地理 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息熵和协整理论的新疆土地利用时空动态分析

双文元 郝晋珉 黄晓英 张玲娥   

  • 收稿日期:2010-06-09 修回日期:2010-08-26 出版日期:2011-03-20 发布日期:2011-03-20
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技攻关课题; 长江学者和创新团队发展计划

Spatial Temporal Dynamic Analysis of Land Use in Xinjiang Based on Information Entropy and Cointegration Theory

  • Received:2010-06-09 Revised:2010-08-26 Online:2011-03-20 Published:2011-03-20

摘要:

土地利用结构信息熵可以综合反映某区域在一定时段内各种土地利用类型的动态变化及其转换程度,对于具体区域的土地利用结构调整、优化利用土地具有一定的指导意义。土地利用动态变化研究是全球性的课题,土地利用结构变化是土地利用动态变化的结果,笔者应用信息熵理论和协整理论及Granger因果检验,探究新疆土地利用时空动态变化。结果表明:①土地利用结构信息熵反映了新疆土地利用的时空情况,其信息熵随着时间的推移缓慢上升,其变化幅度较小,总体上土地利用结构趋于稳定,但南北疆土地利用差异明显;②土地利用变化与经济发展密切相关。土地利用结构与经济发展是非平稳的时间序列,经济发展与土地利用结构之间存在协整关系,经济发展是土地利用变化的单向Granger原因。新疆经济发展是土地利用结构及类型变化的主要原因,其特殊的自然生态环境,应在保护生态环境的前提下,统筹安排各业各类用地,协调好经济发展与土地利用之间的关系。因此,必须对该区域的土地利用结构进行调整与优化,以维护区域系统的稳定。

关键词: 长期定位试验, 长期定位试验, 施肥制度, 高产、稳产, 肥料贡献率。

Abstract:

The information entropy values are of guiding significance to the regulation of the land use structure in a region because they can reflect the dynamic change and transformation degree of land use types in a region in a certain period of time. The land use dynamic change is the global topic, the structure change of land use is the result of the land use dynamic change. The applications of the information entropy values of the land use structure and cointegration theory, Granger causality test are discussed in the paper. The result shows that: firstly, the information entropy of land use structure reflects the spatial temporal land use situation in Xinjiang. The information entropy rises slowly with the lapse of time, its change scope is small. Xinjiang land use structure is overall stable, but differences between Southern and Northern Xinjiang, land use differences are significant; secondly, the land use change and economic development is closely related. The variables of land use and economic development are nonstationary time series. The cointegration relation has also been found between land use and economic development in Xinjiang. Economic development is the land use changes one way Granger causes. The economic development is the main reason of the land use and type change, special natural ecological environment in Xinjiang should arrange various lands overall and coordinate between the economic development and the land use based on protecting the ecological environment. Therefore, we must make the adjustment and optimization of the land use structure in this region to maintain the regional system's stability.