Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 144-151.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15080076

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Thunderstorm Characteristics Analysis and Thunderstorm Tendency Forecast in Qinghai from 1961 to 2013

  

  • Received:2015-08-14 Revised:2016-01-13 Accepted:2015-09-25 Online:2016-02-19 Published:2016-02-19

Abstract: The paper aims to clarify the climatic characteristics of thunderstorm weather variations in Qinghai Province and provide reference for meteorological forecast. The authors analyzed the thunderstorm observation data from April to September of 45 stations in Qinghai Province during 1961-2013, and got the thunderstorm spatial- temporal distribution and variation characteristics in the vegetation growing season by the trend coefficient and the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and then predicted the thunderstorm change in the future using Hurst indexes of R/S method. The results indicated that the average thunderstorm day was 38 days from April to September in Qinghai, and July had the most, the thunderstorm day observed by most of the stations in Qinghai Province presented a significantly decreasing trend; the M- K test indicated that the thunderstorm day had the mutation in May and June starting from 1998. The thunderstorm day was more in the south than that in the north, and decreased from southeast to northwest; and the three main spatial distribution types were northeastern, southern and middle region respectively from April to September. The decreasing trend of thunderstorm in the whole province, northeastern and southern regions would be maintained in the future, and the persistence was strong. The thunderstorm change in the middle region would remain stability.