Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 128-136.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16050117

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Prediction and Analysis of Future Climate Change in Anhui: Under the Background of New Generation Greenhouse Gas Emission

Wang Yu1, Lu Yanyu2, Wang Yuehua3   

  1. (1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Engineering/Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Environmental Science, Nanjing 210036;2Anhui Provincial Climate Centre, Hefei 230031;3Central Research Institute of Building and Construction Co., Ltd, MCC Group, Beijing 100088)
  • Received:2016-05-19 Revised:2016-08-30 Accepted:2016-08-31 Online:2017-02-04 Published:2017-02-04

Abstract: Based on the new generation of scenarios which were provided by the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the future climate in Anhui under different scenarios was projected by using the outputs of the regional climate model RegCM4, which was derived from the “data set of climate change prediction in China V3.0” released by Chinese Meteorological Bureau. Based on the data set (1971-2000), the authors adopted the regional climate model simulation to evaluate the climate changes in Anhui in the future, especially during the next 20 years. The simulation results showed that in the next 20 years the average temperature in Anhui under different scenarios were rising, the average temperature increased by about 0.9-1.1℃; different characteristics of precipitation were predicted, the precipitation would increase under the low emission scenarios, and decrease under high emission scenarios; until the middle of the 21st century, compared with the base period, the province’s average temperature would rise 1.6-1.7℃; the increase rate of temperature in the north was higher than that in the south; the precipitation would fall 50- 90 mm, compared with the base period, the decrease of precipitation would be in the whole province. In addition, through the simulation of precipitation and temperature, we can predict that the extreme weather and climate events, such as waterlogging, drought, and high temperature will happen frequently.