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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 115-121.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17110072

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Applicability and Revision of MCI in Sichuan Province

  

  • Received:2017-11-20 Revised:2019-03-13 Accepted:2018-03-13 Online:2019-03-26 Published:2019-03-26

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data and the drought disaster data of 156 stations in Sichuan Province during 1991-2013, the classification standard of the actual drought disasters was established with the method of grey correlation. The applicability of MCI in Sichuan Province was analyzed, and which was revised by using the method of projection pursuit. The results showed that the grey correlation degree of selecting three indexes of crop disaster area, social disaster population and direct economic loss could well describe the comprehensive loss of drought disaster. The applicability analysis showed that the accuracy rate of drought grade assessment based on MCI was generally low, of which the special drought occurred 21 times, and the MCI evaluation result reached 115. The inaccurate assessment of drought levels might be related to the gradual improvement of irrigation and water capacity in Sichuan province. Based on the reference sequence of the disaster grey correlation degree, the influence of each component of MCI on the actual drought was revealed by the projection pursuit method, and the optimal projection direction was found, and the revised coefficient of MCI indexes were established. Compared with MCI, the revised MCInew had significantly improved the evaluation ability of drought grade, and the accuracy of drought assessment increased from 16.5% to 62.5%. A case study also indicated that MCInew was more consistent with the actual drought occurrence and development.