Abstract:

Accurate prediction of the first flowering date of roses can provide scientific basis for flower appreciation and tourism management. This paper based on the records of the first flowering date of roses in Pingyin from 1994 to 2023 and the meteorological data of Pingyin County National Meteorological Observatory in the same period, the variation characteristics of the first flowering date were analyzed, and the correlation analysis between the first flowering date and meteorological factors was carried out to establish the regression prediction equation. The results show that the first flowering date of roses is from April 30 to May 1, which has been advanced in recent years. The ordinal number of days of the first flowering date is significantly correlated with the average temperature of April, accumulated temperature and sunshine duration, among which the correlation with accumulated temperature is the most significant. The prediction equations of the first flowering date are established by using the average temperature of April, accumulated temperature and accumulated temperature combined with sunshine duration, respectively. It is found that the accumulated temperature method is more accurate in predicting the first flowering date of roses.

Key words: rose, first flowering date, variation characteristics, accumulative temperature, sunshine duration, prediction