Abstract:

Study on meteorological conditions grade forecast for two migration of rice insects, Provided reasons for insect prevention and disaster reduction in rice production. By comparative analysis on the date of meteorological conditions and occurrences of two migration of rice insect in Guilin region, thinking of meteorological condition and injurious number in earlier days, we used regression analysis method to forecast the grade of meteorological condition that affecting the two migration of rice insect. The system had contained long term and medium term forecast. Forecast factor and target had been divided as 5 grades in the work system. Using the mouth’s and season’s and week’s weather forecast conclusion that local observatory have published, synthesize analysis the early days weather and injurious numbers condition, we could forecast the weather condition grade that affecting the two migration of rice insect for next mouth, or next season or each day in future 1-7 days. This was a practical forecast work system, the forecast accuracy for each day was larger than 70%. Two migration of rice insects were seriously impacted by meteorological conditions. By study on the meteorological condition grades forecast, we could establish the meteorological condition grade forecast mode, and had positive function for manufacture practice.