Abstract:

Reasonable land reserve scale can not only ensure the development of social economy, also can avoid land resources idle and wasted, so it is significant to study the scale of the land banking. The author used GM(1,1) model to predict the agricultural population and the demand scale of increasing town construction land by 2020 of Kaifeng, combine the 2006-2020 general land use planning of Kaifeng to predict the total supply scale of urban construction land at target year, and then base on the way of intensive and economical utilization to predict the saving potential of town construction land in the future, thus obtain the land reserve scale of Kaifeng on target year. According to the thinking of this research, it can measure the land reserve scale is 26036.22 hm2 (the scale of incremental land is 9990.35 hm2 and the stock land is 16045.87 hm2) of Kaifeng in 2020. It has important actual significance for reinvigorating the stock land preferentially and controlling construction urban expansion effectively.