Abstract:

It’s important to study on the eco-security capacity of a social-economic-natural compounding system in certain areas, especially for sustainable development in urban watershed. The author took a village of Miyun watershed for an example to study the eco-security carrying capacity by using the method of system dynamics (SD) model simulation, aimed to solve the problems between industry development and environment. It explained that small agro-bio-cycle system could increase eco-security carrying capacity remarkably, but must be combined with village tour which developed rapidly. During the research, the eco-security had been divided into 4 subsystem, such as population, bio-cycle agriculture, village tourism and waste resources, then 9 schemes had been searched and system dynamics model had been built. The simulation results showed that: (1) mushroom industry was the ligament for the small eco-cycle system, and if all the greenhouse in the village had been used to produce mushroom, the eco-security would be better in the coming 10 years; (2) if the stalks, cattle manure, tree branches, mushroom sticks and waste water had been treated to 60%, the balance point for ecology and economy was coming, that is, the ecology and economy of the village would be in order and sustainable in the coming 10 years.