Abstract:

In order to find the method of predicting snowmelt flood and the active measure against it and provide the basis for decision-making services for disaster prevention and mitigation in Yakeshi. The author focused on disaster data of snowmelt flood, precipitation and temperature during from 1981 to 2010 in Yakeshi by the method of mathematical statistical analysis, discussed the laws of the disaster of snowmelt flood. The results showed that snowmelt flood and condition of winter precipitation and spring period temperature changes were closely related. From March to April, the temperature of variation process and winter precipitation were the major factors influenced the snowmelt flood, the duration of the disaster of snowmelt flood was proportional to winter precipitation, disaster risk was clear increasing trend. For Yakeshi, when winter precipitation of last year was greater than or equal to 58.4 mm and in March of the next year, daily average temperature more than -4.4℃, daily minimum temperature was greater than or equal to -15.4℃, people should pay attention to the prevention of snowmelt flood.