Abstract:

In order to supply technical support for control of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss) and Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner & Bubrer) Nickle, the author used the basic principles of chaotic time series, by analyzing the trapping series of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss) in forest and then reconstructed the phase space and calculated the largest Lyapunov exponent. The results showed that the trapping series of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss) in forest had chaotic characteristics. On this basis, the short-term prediction of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss) population dynamics with weighted one-rank local-region model showed that the prediction success rate in the largest temporal scale was 100%.