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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (25): 97-101.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1170

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Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution of Cacopsylla chinensis Yang et Li in Yunnan Province

  

  • Received:2013-04-24 Revised:2013-05-13 Online:2013-09-05 Published:2013-09-05

Abstract: In order to grasp the potential distribution of the Cacopsylla chinensis in Yunnan Province, to provide reference for insect pest situation, early warning, the prevention and control of C. chinensis. Ecological niche modelling technique, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), were used to predict potential distribution of Cacopsylla chinensis in Yunnan Province based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results showed that: the suitable areas for Cacopsylla chinensis were divided into 4 grades by different colors: black was for the highly suitable areas; the moderate suitable areas was dark grey; light grey was on half of the low suitable areas and white represented the unsuitable areas. The results were proved by ROC analytical method and the AUC value of MaxEnt were 0.995 and 0.997, which was greater than 0.5 of the stochastic AUC value and it meant that the prediction was highly dependable.