Dynamic Simulation on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land Use Changes in Chongming County Based on CLUE-S Model

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1670

Abstract

Abstract: In order to know the effects of development policies and management style on land use changes, based on the digital land-use imageries of 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, and other statistical data of the three islands of Chongming County, the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in Chongming County were found out from such biophysical and socioeconomic factors as urban and rural residential areas, people density especially labor density, economic level and so on. Based on the analysis data, the CLUE-S model suitable for modeling Chongming County was constructed. It was applied to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 2006 to 2020 for the three islands of Chongming County under two scenarios, developed by region programming (scenario 1) and developed by historical trends (scenario 2) respectively. The result showed that: inhabitancy area, farmland and pond would increase from 2005 to 2020 in scenario 2, and the increased area mainly transferred from wetland. In scenario 1, the constructed area showed high density spot distribution. Farmland, wetland would be preserved, and a large of forest also be constructed in scenario 1. It was showed that land use type with high ecological serve value such as wetland and forest was focused on in scenario 1 ‘ecological island’ constructing. By providing a series of scenarios, it revealed risks inherent in certain development strategies which might jeopardize sustainable development of the area.

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