Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 297-301.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2432

Special Issue: 农业气象

• 23 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on the Model Between the Occurrence Area of Dendrolimus spp. and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation

  

  • Received:2013-09-11 Revised:2013-10-18 Online:2014-03-05 Published:2014-03-05

Abstract: In order to guide the prevention and control of Dendrolimus spp. in northeast China, the effective control of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence, and reduce the harm to the forestry production and ecological security, the author analyzed the relationships between occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. in northeastern China during 2002-2012 and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation from previous June to current May. The factors of atmospheric circulation which were significant related with Dendrolimus spp. occurrence were selected. The occurrence area forecast models concerning atmospheric circulation were established by stepwise regression method and verified separately. The results showed that: the occurrence area attacked by Dendrolimus spp. could be preferably simulated and predicted by these models. The forecast accuracy reached above 80%, in addition to Jilin to 70% by various provinces of northeastern China and different kinds of Dendrolimus spp. occurrence area atmospheric circulation model through extending prediction for 2010- 2012.