Abstract: In order to provide the basis for land and water use planning and environmental protection of government decision- making and management. Based on scenario analysis method, assuming different economic development policies, and AHP method, the ecological indicators and risk prediction models were established. The trends of ecological risk in the northwest region were analyzed for the government decisions. The results showed that: in the northwest, the potential ecological risks of the population economy, water resources, and land resources and natural disasters still existed. However, the environment and respond to ecological risks were decreasing. Therefore, a regional balanced development measures had been taken to curb the western trend of ecological deterioration. So that socio-economic development, resources, environment, and economy were expected to a virtuous cycle, and the ecological risks would be reduced.